- Trump announces Isreal and Lebanon ceasefire
- Trump says Iran meeting could be on weekend; Netanyahu confirms Lebanon ceasefire
- US initial jobless claims 207K vs 215K expected
- US April Philly Fed business index +26.7 vs +10.0 expected
- Gulf and European officials expect the US to take six months for an Iran deal
- Fed's Miran: I would pencil in 3 rate cuts this year versus 4 before the war
- Fed's Williams: At this moment, not appropriate to provide specific forward guidance
- US March industrial production -0.5% vs +0.1% expected
- Netflix Q1 earnings: The print is clean, the guide is the problem
- Fed's Williams: Seeing emerging signs of supply chain disruptions
- Anthropic releases Opus 4.7 drops but the real 'Mythos' is still behind the glass
- ECB's Kazaks: Market pricing of two rate hikes this year is reasonable
Markets:
- Gold flat
- WTI crude oil up $2.15 to $93.44
- US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to 4.315%
- S&P 500 up 0.3%
- CAD leads, NZD lags
The Nasdaq rose for the twelfth consecutive session in one of the all-time greatest runs of green. It was helped along by the latest Anthropic release and the Trump comments. Everything in Trump's comments sounded positive and that pushed back against some tough talk from Hegseth early in the session that briefly weighed. Intel, Cisco and Texas Instruments were standouts but after hours, Netflix fell 8% on weak guidance.
The picture in FX was mixed as the war trades aren't as clear anymore. It seems we're moving beyond the 'war-on/war-off' dynamic and pricing economic shifts, supply chains and other economic shifts. That helps to explain some CAD outperformance as it's not vulnerable to oil, gas or fertilizer shortages in the way that Australia or developing markets are.
In general, there was a retracement of war trades as crude ticked higher at the front end of the curve. At one point, oil was up more than $4 but halved its gains after Trump's comments. Despite that, the euro was softer and Treasury yields rose 2-5 bps across the curve.
An underrated factor in recent market moves could be economic data. Yesterday the Empire Fed was strong and today's Philly number was also strong. Initial jobless claims also fell as good numbers continue to roll in. If not for tariffs and war, the global economy would be cooking right now.
The Friday North American economic data schedule is light with Canadian CPI as the lone highlight.
