Crude oil futures are settling at $68.58, down $0.92 (-1.32%) on the day. The session low reached $68.03, while the high topped out at $70.19.
Today's decline established a new cycle low, taking prices to their weakest level since February 27, the day before the Iran conflict began. For reference, crude settled at $67.28 on that day, highlighting how the geopolitical risk premium has largely evaporated.
From a technical perspective, the sellers remain firmly in control. To shift the short-term bias, buyers first need to reclaim the 100-hour moving average at $70.04, followed by the 200-hour moving average at $71.65. A sustained move above those levels would be the first sign that downside momentum is fading.
Even then, the buyers would still face another important hurdle. The 200-day moving average at $73.91 remains a key longer-term resistance level. Until the price can break and hold above these technical barriers, rallies are likely to be viewed as selling opportunities, leaving the sellers firmly in control.
