I posted previews of the Australian second quarter 2018 inflation data earlier here:
- Australian inflation data due today - preview
- AUD trader - heads up for CPI data due soon - preview
- AUD traders - heads up for Q2 inflation data due this week (July 25)
As to my question in the headline, unless there is some sort of surprise / shock result in the data I reckon, no … implications for the AUD, rates and the RBA will be light if its an as expected result.
Instead, keep your eye on external factors:
- US policy (higher US rates on the way it seems still)
- Commodity/metal prices under pressure
- China / US trade war tensions
- Watch the CNY weakness, there is likely more to come in approaching weeks (the weakness is not just against the USD, as I mentioned again yesterday here: The yuan drop is due to USD strength. Nope, wrong.)
On the domestic front, keep your eye on funding squeezes and house prices (drifting lower). High household debt & slow wage growth are also a given right now.
All these are negative inputs for the AUD …. but … on the positioning front the AUD is subject to the odd short squeeze push higher (data indicates shorts highest in a couple of years or so … happy if anyone wants to provide more detail on this but that ballpark is about right). Employment growth has recently improved too (latest figures anyway).
