Economic data isn't going to be enough to save prospects of a May rate hike when the BOE meets on 10 May
- Today - BOE Carney speaks in London
- 1 May - April manufacturing PMI
- 2 May - April construction PMI
- 3 May - April services and composite PMI
- 10 May - March industrial and manufacturing production
Looking at what is left in terms of key data, there doesn't look like there is anything that can prop up the possibility of a rate hike in May from hereon.
Unless those PMI figures are through the roof, and even then, I just don't see it happening. The industrial and manufacturing production figures for March are on the same day as the BOE meeting so that can be ruled out.
BOE governor Carney is due to speak later today (he'll be speaking at the launch of the bank's EconoME programme), and it will be a very brazen step for him to prime the market up for that given the soggy data we have seen all throughout April.
Traders are already slashing their expectations of a rate hike for May with money market pricing being halved from just above 50% to between 20-25%. Needless to say, the BOE has never raised the bank rate when annual GDP growth was this low.
And if market expectations heading into the meeting remains well below the common threshold of 60-70%, it would be one of the bigger surprises this year if the BOE is to embark on a rate hike in May.
As we wind down the week and the month, cable is currently down 1.73% and it would represent the first time since 2004 that sterling has actually dropped against the US dollar on the month of April (and to note, cable has fallen in the last eight Mays since 2010):
