This in summary from WPAC's just out preview for April to June quarter GDP
--
forecast for Q2 GDP remains 0.6% q/q 2.7% y/y
risks appear to be tilted a little to the upside, as suggested by positive surprises on profits and wage incomes
- domestic demand, 0.6%;
- total inventories -0.2ppts;
- net exports +0.1ppt
- Note, total inventories include farm inventories, which we expect to be a negative
More:
Key uncertainties are around consumer spending and the farm sector.
- On the consumer, while retail sales jumped by 1.2% we expect total consumer spending to increase by a more modest 0.7%, with weakness in car sales and spending on services potentially mixed.
- For the farm sector, we expect this to be a modest drag due to the unfolding drought, with potentially further and larger negatives over the coming couple of quarter
---
Westpac's 0.6% forecast is slightly under the median consensus I have seen at 0.7%
- range of forecasts are 0.5 to 1.0%
I suspect there wil be a few changes made to forecasts after the partials are more fully digested.
ps. The data is due Wednesday Sep 5 at 0130GMT
