ADP employment report at 13.15 GMT
Wednesday kicks off the jobs week properly with our first sniff at US employment. Even with the recent tweeks to the ADP model, it still has a propensity to be wide of the mark.
ADP vs NFP
That's alright though, it's not the NFP and never will be but it remains a good gauge for the jobs report nonetheless, if only to give us a sense of direction, or potentially flag any problems.
A steady 185/187k is forecast today (depending on what calendar you're looking at (those two numbers are from BBG & Rtrs)). The high estimate is 291k, the low 140k. Last month's 298k blew away the 190k expectations. Last month's NFP also beat expectations by 235k to 190k. NFP is forecast around the 175k mark at the moment.
As has been the case with the employment reports of late, the numbers don't really mean much, while they stay steady. It's still all about the wage numbers. Unless we get something sub 100k or over 350k, the dollar is unlikely to do much, and it's likely to do more on a big miss than a big beat.
