The Autumn Statement from the UK Chancellor
UK will maintain commitment to fiscal discipline
Forecasts 2016 GDP at 2.1% vs 2.0% in March
2017 GDP at 1.4% vs 2.2% prior
2018 1.7% vs 2.1% prior
2019 2.1% unch
2020 2.1% unch
Potential growth to be 2.4 pp lower due to Brexit
Labour market forecasts to remain robust
BOE monetary policy helped support growth since the vote
No longer seeking to return to surplus in 2019/20
Aims for a balanced budget in the next parliament
No welfare savings measures this parliament
Tax receipts lower than expected this year leading to downward revision to future revenues
2016/17 budget deficit expected 68.2bn vs 55.5bn prior (def of GDP 3.5% vs 2.9% prior
2017/18 59bn vs 38.8bn prior
2017/18 PSND to GDP to peak at 90.2% vs 81.3% prior
Upward revision in net debt forecasts partly due to reclassification of BOE stimulus
BOE actions stripped out, PSND to peak at 82.4% of GDP
