Via oiprice.com:
Expectations I had seen:
- headline crude oil +0.3mn barrels
- distillates --2.3mn bbls
- gasolina -2.1mn bbls
This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).
- It's a survey of oil storage facilities and companies
- The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.
The two reports are quite different.
The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
- Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
- Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week's levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
- the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API
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Oil markets ended firmer on the Tuesday, with geopolitical tension around Iran ultimately outweighing bearish supply-side developments.
On the Iran front, reports that the Trump administration is dissatisfied with Tehran's latest negotiating proposal initially weighed on sentiment, though one account suggested the two sides are closer to an agreement than appearances indicate. Markets then tightened again after Iran's foreign minister was reported to have cut short his visit to Pakistan following a stop in Russia, a move read as a sign of diplomatic strain.
Two headlines briefly dragged benchmarks to their US session lows. The UAE confirmed it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ from 1 May and bring additional barrels to market, a bearish supply signal. Separately, President Trump claimed Iran had told Washington it was in a state of collapse and was seeking the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, comments that muddied the diplomatic picture further.
Despite that mid-session dip, WTI and Brent recovered into settlement, closing higher on the day but below their earlier peaks.
