RBNZ interest rate decision March 12
- 2 of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a rate cut
- The implied probability of a cut in the bill futures market was about 15%
- Previously the RBNZ said: "Future interest rate adjustments, either up or down, will depend on the emerging flow of economic data". They have repeated that statement.
- Foresees period of stability for rates
- Expect inflation to gradually return toward mid-point of range
- The previous decision was Jan 29
- NZDUSD traded at session lows at 0.7193 ahead of the data
Nothing dovish here so far, NZD jumps 30 pips.
- Significant fall in inflation expectations would warrant more supportive policy
- Full text of Wheeler's statement
That comment has helped to push NZD back down to pre-RBNZ levels.
Forecasts:
- Sees annual CPI at 0.4% at the end of 2015 (prior 1.5%)
- Sees annual CPI at 2.0% vs 2.0% prior
- Sees GDP to March 2015 at 3.2% vs 3.5 prior
- Sees GDP in March 2016 year at 3.5% vs 3.1% prior
