I guess I really should post on something other than Australia :-D
April trade balance data from Canada coming up!
- due at 1230GMT
- expected deficit of 3.4bn
- prior deficit was 4.14bn
- (ps. building permits due at the same time, expected -1% m/m, prior +3.1%)
Preview via
RBC not looking for quite so big a deficit as is consensus:
- We are anticipating the trade balance to improve to -C$2.9bn in April f
- Volume growth was large in both exports (3.0%) and imports (4.6%) in March, including a 2.5% m/m increase in non-energy export volumes, though the level is still in a sideways trend since mid2014.
- We expect significant retracement in each of export and import volumes in April, though higher oil prices (WCS prices up ~30% m/m) should see nominal exports marginally higher in the month.
Scotiabank, same … :
- … trade figures for April may be poised for a setback if for no other reason than the fact the prior month was so strong. That could still mean that the dollar value of the trade deficit narrows and I'm guesstimating -$3 billion for the monthly balance.
- The trade balance may improve as import growth may be more vulnerable to the downside than export growth. Recall that export volumes were up by 3% m/m in March for the strongest gain since July 2016 while import volumes were up by 5.2% for the strongest gain since July 2009. Nevertheless, the trends in both-especially imports-are likely to remain constructive. Imports may rise in the next report as companies attempt to front-load order books ahead of tariffs that Canada has imposed upon a variety of US goods that become effective on July 1st (Canada Day!).
