The Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy announcement for June 2018 is due at 2100GMT
Unanimous expectations are for an on hold cash rate
- There will be a very brief (less than a page) statement to accompany the decions
There will be no press conference
- There will be no updates to forecasts
- There will be no Monetary Policy Statement
I posted previews of what to expect:
- Preview of the RBNZ meeting - cash rate to remain on hold
- RBNZ meeting - 'on hold' expected - but here are 3 things to watch in the statement
- Its RBNZ week - preview of the announcement
- ANZ on the RBNZ, expect the next rate move in ... 18 months
- CBA on the AUD this week, and on the RBNZ
- RBNZ meeting coming up - 'shadow board' recommends no change to cash rate
Now, some final thoughts, these via ANZ (bolding mine):
Since the May MPS, developments have been negative on balance, and we expect that a similar message will be retained:
- the RBNZ will remain cautious until inflation shows consistent signs of life.
We expect a reiteration of the neutral message that the next move in interest rates could be either up or down, depending on data flow. But while the message is likely to be similar, the question is whether the wording of the statement will change materially.
It is possible that the statement will be regularly refreshed under the new Governor to avoid it becoming formulaic, although this Morning Focus author wonders if they might quickly run out of new ways to say "interest rates will be low for some time yet.
ANZ on the NZD:
- A stronger USD, together with yesterday's poor Business Outlook survey, has seen the NZD break key downside support levels. One has to wonder about market positioning here, leaving the potential of a near-term profit-taking bounce. However, the medium-term picture looks to be for more weakness. Today it is obviously about the RBNZ.
- Support 0.6740
- Resistance 0.6850
