Moody's publishes their UK Brexit monitor report
- Brexit impact on UK GDP has been relatively muted
- Consumer indicators are below five-year averages and household consumption growth has slowed since the referendum withretail sales stagnating in recent months
- Consumer price inflation - on both the headline and core measures - has fallen from its 2018 peaks, but has edged higher since the referendum and is above five-year averages
- Labour market indicators are also near five-year averages and employment growth picked up early this year, while hiring intentions slowed in the first quarter
- Markets are expecting short-term term sterling rates to rise by 25 basis points over the next three months and by 50 bps over the next year
The full report can be found here. With regards to their last point, it's a bit misleading as the market is pricing in less than a quarter chance of a BOE rate hike in May with an August rate hike also still very much up for debate.
