The NAB business conditions and confidence data is here from earlier
JP Morgan (senior economist Ben Jarman)
- "With business conditions now only at average levels, some further easing in monetary conditions is likely to be required to deliver the RBA's forecast 3 per cent GDP growth profile"
Yep - way too early to be writing off rate cut expectations from the Reserve Bank of Australia next year
And, more responses ...
ANZ
Data tells a mixed story of Australia's business sector
Business conditions softened further in November and show a real slowing in momentum over the second half of 2016
- Conditions have seen a marked weakening over the second half of 2016, driven by a noticeable reduction in firms' profitability
- The profitability index has averaged 6.9 in the second half of the year compared to a very strong 11.9 over the first half
- This slowdown in profitability is consistent with other data, including the softer employment outcomes experienced over the last few months
- We also saw a very weak company profits result in last week's Q3 GDP data, and the ongoing softness in today's survey suggests some caution about a turnaround in profits in Q4.
However, business confidence remains solid ... will remain a vital ingredient for the economy going forward
Capital Economics
Rebound in business confidence supports our view that Australia is unlikely to fall into recession in the fourth quarter
But the ABS house price data for the third quarter imply that the housing market is not as hot as some indicators suggest and that it can't be relied on to carry the economy next year
UBS
- NAB business survey suggests further loss of economic momentum in recent months
- Business conditions trending down towards a 2-year low ... but the level is around average, and hence is still inconsistent with Q3's negative GDP
