At 0330GMT we get the result announced from today’s Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy board meeting. No change to the official cash target rate is expected…
BUT …
Comments on ForexLive have questioned the ‘no change’ consensus for today – pointing out that the RBA is often a source of surprises in these announcements.
What’s happening in the Australian economy?
- Inflation is within the target range,
- Official employment figures report unemployment is low (would you like fries with that?)
- Company profits are up
- Share prices are rising recently
- The housing sector is showing signs of recovery
What’s not to love?
It looks like Glenn Stevens should be relatively happy to leave rates where they are, awaiting further ‘flow-through’ effects from the cuts to rates last year. This is certainly what I’ve gleaned from his recent reported comments. The futures market agrees, putting the chances of a rate cut around 16%.
Once the no change announcement is made, eyes will turn to the accompanying statement to assess changes in outlook and any changes to sentiment on the RBA Board (more dovish, less dovish, etc.?).
OK, so what say you all? Cut / no cut, statement nuanced to more dovish / less dovish …
