Forex news for New York trading on November 8, 2016
- How are the markets voting?
- The lack of jitters suggests the market has priced in a +90% chance Clinton wins
- Morgan Stanley stopped out of Australian dollar short
- Targets for one-week after the US elections - Barclays
- Here are when all the polls in the US close
- Real-time exit polls are moving the market. Here's the down-low
- Fed's Evans: Path of rates more important than initial hike timing
- Trump campaign seeks court order against Nevada county registrar
- Fed's Evans: December looking 'reasonable' for a rate hike
- Goldman Sachs not accepting stop loss orders on Mexican Peso (MXN)- Livesquawk
- BOC's Schembri: Improvement in competitiveness from lower CAD is less than expected
- How much damage has the election done to the world's view of America?
- VoteCastr early vote estimate: Clinton leads in Florida
- UK Supreme Court accepts Brexit appeal
- September 2016 US JOLTS job openings 5.486m vs 5.508m exp
- Isn't it about time the EURUSD got out of this quagmire?
- Expect to see more headwinds created by the strong dollar as rates rise says Fed's Evans
- September 2016 Canadian building permits -7.0% vs -5.6% exp m/m
- October 2016 Canadian housing starts 192.9k vs 195.0k exp
Markets:
- S&P index up 0.38%, Nasdaq up 0.53%, Dow up 0.40%
- Crude oil futures $44.83, down $0.05, or -0.11%
- Spot gold $1275.53, -$6.11 or -0.48%
- Strongest Currency today NZD. Weakest JPY
It's US Election Day, so if there were any distractions like Fed's Evan's speaking ("December hike looking reasonable") or Canada housing starts or building permits, they really did not have an impact. Instead, the market took a early clue from a early exit poll that showed Clinton was doing better and the markets started to price in that idea. We wait for the "real exit polls" shortly, and for the voting polls closing and getting real voting tallies. It is still too early but "as Florida goes" is how the pundits are looking at it, but other states like NC, Georgia Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Michigan will certainly have a say. They are saying that 130 million will vote. That would be a record.
What did the markets do today?
It was a lean toward Clinton. What does that look like?
Risk currencies rallied like the NZD, CAD and AUD were the strongest currencies. The weakest currencies were the safe haven currencies like the JPY and CHF. In perhaps the most vulnerable currency pair, the USDMXN fell below a trend line, the 50% retracement and - near the end of the day - below the 200 day MA at 18.3980 level (it is trading at 18.2890 now).
Putting it in terms of candidates, the market trading over the last few weeks has viewed Trump as the "risk off" guy and Clinton as the "risk on" gal. The "risk on" gal has gotten the early nod. She was the odd's on favorite going in, so perhaps the slant is not surprising. We will see how the cards fall.
The EURUSD fell modestly today. In the process, the price has fallen below the 200 hour mA at the 1.1029 level, and did a pretty good job of staying below that level (at least on a closing basis) during the NY session. Support held above the 1.1000 level with a low only reaching 1.1008. A move below the 1.1000 level and then the 1.0980 (100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart).
The USDJPY moved higher and at the end of the day is trading near the day's high. In the new trading day if the price can get above a trend line cutting across at 105.34, there is room for more roam. The recent high stalled at 105.52 (October 28th). If Trump shows strength, watch a move below 104.13 to turn the technical bias more to the downside.
It ain't over until it is over but it nearly is over. Although the market is trading with a degree of confidence, there is a lot of votes to be counted and electoral college votes to be disbursed. It is the surprising shocks that do the most damage. So far, there has not been a shock. Will it stay that way. Stay alert.
