Forex news for NY trading on June 8, 2018.
- Major indices are able to eek out gains today
- "Draft summit commitment" being released
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: EUR (long), CHF (short) are the two largest speculative positions
- China hacked Navy contractor information. Stole sensitive data.
- Baker Hughes oil rigs inch up to 862 from 861 last week
- G7, economic data, central bank meetings, US/N. Korea summit = Volatile markets. Maybe not...
- The European stocks end the session with declines.
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for 2Q comes in at 4.6% vs 4.5% last
- NY Fed sees 3.08% 2Q GDP growth. Down from 3.26% last week
- US wholesale inventories for April come in at 0.1% vs. 0.0% expected
- UK spokesman: Britain will never accept customs border N. Ireland and the rest of the UK
In other markets near the close of the week:
- Spot gold is up $1.83 or 0.14% at $1299
- WTI crude oil settled at $65.74 down -$0.21 or -0.32%
- Bitcoin (the instrument that never closes) is trading at $7649, down -$11 on the day. The digital currency was able to close above its 100 and 200 hour MAs at $7596 and $7589 respectively
In the US stock market today, the major indices ended higher. European shares were lower today:
- S&P rose 0.31%
- Nasdaq rose 0.14%
- Dow rose 0.30%
- German Dax fell -0.35%
- France's Cac closed unchanged
- UK FTSE fell -0.30%
- Spain's Ibex fell -0.84%
- Italy's FTSE MIB fell -1.89%
US yields rebounded from the flight to safety tumble yesterday:
- 2 year 2.783%, up 1 bp
- 5 year 2.783%, up 2 bps
- 10 year 2.95%, up 2.7 bps
- 30 year 3.09%, up 2.2 bps
Today, the US economic calendar was light. The only economic release was the wholesale inventories. They rose by 0.1% vs 0.0% expected with wholesale trade sales up a decent 0.8%. Still not the kind of news that is going to move the market, and it did little.
Other than that, the Baker Hughes oil rigs inched up by 1 in the current week.
President Trump answered a bunch of reporters questions before heading off to Quebec for the G7 summit. Just to stir things up even more amongst the G7 leaders, he suggested that Russia should be reinstated as a member (making it the G8 again). European leaders (with the exception of Italy) discourage that idea. Japan's Abe kept quiet.
The inside scoop from the meetings was focused on how they were "cordial" despite the conflicts on trade, tariff, Iran deal. Perhaps the one common ground (other than thwarting cyber attacks on democracy which for the most part was Russian influenced ironically) was N. Korea. Trump visits with Kim Jong Un next week, and the leaders are uniform in their support for their denuclearization.
The big economc event for the day was the Canadian employment statistics. The market was expecting a rebound from the lower than expected -1.1K decline last month. They did not get that rebound as the net change came in at -7.5K. That was the first back to back decline since the end of 2014.
After a surge higher in the USDCAD (CAD lower) on algos buying the weaker job change, the focus turned to the wages which came in at a surprising 3.9% YoY, well above the 3.2% expectations and the highest reading since July 2012 when it was also 3.9%. Prior to that, you would have to go all the way back to April 2009 for a higher reading. That helped to send the CAD higher (the USDCAD lower. Looking at the snapshot of the strongest and weakest currencies for the day, the CAD was the strongest.
How did the US do today?
Mixed. It rose the most vs the CHF, AUD and EUR, but was lower vs the CAD and the JPY.
For the week, the strongest currency of the majors was the EUR and leading the downside was the USD although - relatively speaking - the gains and losses were moderate.
Next week, there is a slew of data, central bank meetings and of course the US/N. Korea summit from Singapore. US CPI, UK CPI, Australia employment, UK retail sales are some of the key releases.
Central bank decisions include a hike by the US on Wednesday (84% chance), a potential start of taper by the ECB on Thursday (1.9% chance of tightening, 50/50 on taper?) and Japan likely sitting tight on rates once again (they say there is a 14.7% chance....HMMM)
And then there is the N.Korea and US summit on June 12th in Singapore. Anyone's guess there but given the ratcheting down of expectations, it would be shocking to disappoint. The problem is it may not impress either.
It should be a big week, but often when you expect the most, you end up with a choppy mess. Add to the mix the fact that the World Cup gets underway on Thursday and Friday, and we may just get that choppy mess as World Cup Fever starts to take over and the summer doldrums kicks in. Joy.
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The first thing I read on my phone after the alarm wet off this morning was another high profile suicide. Food aficionado Anthony Bourdain took his life just a few days after fashion designer Kate Spade did the same thing. They each left children behind, parents behind, sisters and brother behind and no doubt countless other friends.
It bothers me, when we have to say Rest in Peace vs. Live in Peace.
I know mental health is not a simple thing. Finding happiness is not that easy sometimes as well.
However, we should all try to find peace in our lives, no matter what. That word "peace" is the key to happiness and a life worth living.
You can be poor and have peace and it is better than being the richest person in the world, without peace.
If you struggle with "finding peace", just talk to a person you love and listen. If you have no one, go online and listen to a song, search for reflections from someone who has peace. Go to the store and tell the cashier "Have a great day". Visit a church. Feel the breeze on your face, the warmth of the sun. Focus on a spark from their words, or a smile, or the feeling and use that to turn your peace on.
"Live in Peace" people.
Smile and have a great weekend. Greg
