Forex news for US trading on April 8, 2016
- Top 5 Economic releases/events for the week starting April 11th
- US stocks end the day with small gains
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: Net speculative positions in GBP increases
- Crude oil futures settle at $39.72/BBL
- Italy Finance Minister Padoan: Italy economy expanding at a faster pace in 2016
- How's your financial stress? KC Feds stress of US financial system falls
- CNBC GDP tracking down to +0.6% from 0.7% last
- Baker Hughes total rig count 443 vs. 450 last week
- Germany's Spahn says Greek debt-relief can only be considered after the review
- The Atlanta GDPNow estimate falls to 0.1% from +0.4%
- USDJPY follows the dollar lower as London traders moving toward the weekend
- J P Morgan cut their US Q1 GDP forecast to +0.2% vs +0.7% previously
- The Old Lady has a new head of the Prudential Regulation Authority
- UK NIESR GDP estimate March +0.3% vs +0.2% previously
- US wholesale inventories Feb mm -0.5% vs -0.2% exp
- FOREX VIDEO: What lessons can we learn from the USDJPY price action and technical tools
- More from Dudley: Recent USD weakening means "that problem is a little less"
- Canadian 2016 Q1 GDP forecast to rise +2.9% vs +1.4% previously
- EU's Dijsselbloem says there's no deadline for Greek review
- Feds Dudley: Calls for cautious, gradual approach to rate hikes
- Canada net employment change March +40.6k vs +10k expected
- Canada housing starts March 204.3k vs 219.1k prev
- Morgan Stanley fancies selling AUSUSD. Do you want to know where?
The dollar ended the day as the weakest of the major currencies - falling the most against the CAD. The Canadian dollar benefited from a double dose of positive fundamentals; 1. stronger job gains (+40K jobs and the unemployment rate coming down from 7.1% from 7.3%), and 2. Crude oil futures up >6% on the day. Oh, Canada! PS Next week the BOC will release there current statement on monetary policy
In the US today, wholesale inventory data fell by -0.5% (est. -0.2%). The lower than expected inventories is a drain on GDP. As a result, estimates were slashed. The Atlanta GDPNow estimate now projects that 1Q GDP will come in at +0.1%. Can the Fed really contemplate raising rates with GDP just above 0.0%? Not likely.
In other news, Fed's Dudley calls for cautious, gradual approach to rate hikes - aligning himself with Chair Yellen. The weekly Baker Hughes rig counts fell once again. The CFTC commitment of traders report showed that GBP shorts increased toward multi year highs suggesting the market was hedging against a Brexit vote in June.
The EURUSD is ending the week with a 127 pip trading range. That range represents the most narrow trading range going back to Thanksgiving week 2015. In fact, the range was the third lowest range going back to early September 2014. The price is ending the week within 10 pips of last weeks close. Non trending leads to trending. Look for a break and run next week.
The GBPUSD is ending the week confined by a triangle. The low at 1.4052 and the high line at 1.4115. There is additional support at 1.4032 that will need to be broken - and stay broken - if the downside is to be explored further in the new trading week. The Bank of England meets in the new week but nothing is expected before the Brexit vote in June. CPI will be released on Tuesday. That will be of interest to traders.
The USDJPY corrected higher in trading earlier in the day but could not sustain momentum (stalled ahead of topside resistance - see today's forex video).
The AUDUSD rebounded in trading today as commodities increased. Next week in Australia the employment statistics will be released (key event). China data (retail sales, IP, and GDP) will also play a role in the fortunes of the AUD (and NZD as well).
Wishing you all a happy, healthy and peace filled weekend. Enjoy The Masters.
