Forex news for US trading on April 6, 2016
- Stocks liking the Fed minutes
- Fed's Bullard speaks on Bloomberg: Fed officials are passionate about decisions
- Well....now what for the USDJPY?
- Dollar moves higher as meeting minutes show a couple favored a March hike, but...
- FOMC Meeting Minutes: Next move based on data not calendar date
- Feds Mester: Monetary policy not appropriate to fix inequalities
- Fed's Mester: Waiting too long has risks
- Preview: Did the FOMC have more clarity in March than they did in January?
- US dollar tumbles...
- Fed's James Bullard will be the first to comment on the FOMC minutes
- US weekly EIA oil inventories -4937k vs 2850k exp
- Think one thing....do the other
- March 2016 Canadian Ivey PMI 50.1 vs 55.0 exp SA
- US stocks open with shaky gains
- Does hedging show a lack of confidence in your strategy?
It was one of those days in the NY trading session where the market had all day to wait for Fed Meeting Minutes (at 2 PM ET) and that caused anxiety, fear and choppy volatile conditions (and maybe some stop hunting).
For example, USDJPY traded below 110.00 and quickly moved to 109.81 on stops. The momentum could not be maintained, however, and once the price moved back above 110.00, the next minute (yes 60 seconds) saw the price move right up to 110.40. No news. Just illiquid markets and nervous trading.
The GBPUSD was another story. This pair fell below support at the 1.4032-58 area. That area was a support/resistance swing level going back to February 22nd. The fall below the support level took the price to 1.4004. Admittedly you need to be careful against those key big figure levels, but the support level broken was pretty key. The GBPUSD price moved back above the 1.4058 level and that was the last time it traded for the day. Buyers took the price up to 1.4170 which happened to also be the high from the Asian Pacific session. Lap complete (PS the 1.4170 was also the low from Friday's Unemployment day - that level will be key going forward). We are ending the day at 1.4120 - still down on the day but well off the 1.4004 low.
The EURUSD could not avoid the volatility either. Early in the NY session it fell below its support at the double bottoms from Unemployment Friday and yesterdays trading (at 1.1334). The break could only make it to 1.1326 before it too reversed. Its rally higher, squeezed up to 1.1431 over the next 4 hours before moving back lower after the FOMC meeting minutes. One saving grace is it looks like the pair will close above the 1.1383-86 level which has confined the closing level over the prior 3 trading days. If support in the new trading day can stay above 1.1376-86, things will remain bullish for the pair. A move below and look for further selling.
So what about the FOMC meeting minutes? There was a couple (two) members who thought a March tightening was appropriate. Esther George was one as she is a voting member. The other was a non voting member and remained anonymous. There were MANY, however, who saw bigger global risk warranting policy caution (called it "prudent to wait"). The dollar was more bid - probably because of the two who wanted to tighten in March - but it did not get too bid as conclusions were that April is probably still a long shot and June remains data dependent.
US stocks liked what they heard. The S&P rose by 1.05%. The Nasdaq was up by 1.59% at the close. Bond yields moved up 2 to 4 basis points. Oil rose by > 5% on the back of a larger inventory draw down today. That helped not only the stocks, but also the CAD.
Good fortune in the new day of trading. Hoping it is less volatile than the ups and downs seen today.
