Forex news for NY trading on August 5, 2016
- S&P and Nasdaq close at record highs
- CFTC commitments of traders data: EUR and GBP shorts benefited from BOE/strong US jobs
- Top 5 economic releases and events for the week starting August 8th
- GBPUSD corrects near day's midpoint
- Baker Hughes total rig count rises to 464 from 463
- Forex technical analysis: EURUSD holding support levels...
- European stocks end the day higher. Mixed on the week.
- The NY Fed Nowcast of GDP at 2.6% for Q3
- US dollar sells off a bit into the London close
- A graphical look at the July Employment report
- The Atlanta Fed GDP now estimate rises to 3.8%
- Stocks reach new highs. USDJPY - JPY pairs - go with it.
- Canada Ivey PMI rises to 57.0 vs. 50.9 estimate
- US stocks jump on the opening
- US trade balance at the worst in nearly a year
- Now the dollar ducks are starting to align
- Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD enters support area
- USDJPY move after non-farm payrolls rings alarm bells
- EURUSD finds support (for now) at the 200 day MA/100 bar on 4-hour after strong US employment
- Canada change in private payroll -31.2K vs +10K estimate
- July 2016 US Non-farm payrolls 255k vs 180k exp m/m
- Do you want to know what the best non-farm payroll trade of the day might be?
- Markets prepare for the next big risk event
As a recap for the week, the USD was mostly higher vs the major currencies - rising against all the major currencies with the exception of the AUD and the JPY.
For the day, the dollar was up against all the major pairs with the pair the strongest against the CAD.
Fundamentally, dollar buying was supported by stronger than expected US employment. Non farm payroll jobs added 255K vs 180K est. The average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% (est. +0.2%). The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9% as the labor force participation rate moved up to 62.8% from 62.7%. The prior 2 months were revised higher by 18K. The 3 month average moved up to 190K, while the running 12 month average stands at 204K. Overall a solid report and may give the Fed cause to potentially sneak in a modest 0.25% rise in rates before the election. The US stock market liked what it saw as it rose to record close levels in both the S&P and Nasdaq. In the US debt markets, yields were higher with the 2 year yield up 8 BP, the 5 year up 10 BP and the 10 year up 8 basis points.
As mentioned above the USDCAD was the strongest pair for the day. A combination of strong US jobs and weak Canada jobs (-31K) created the dynamics for a strong rally in that pair. The price surged above the 100 and 200 hour MA at 1.3000 and 1.3112 and that opened the way for further gains up to the 1.3200 high. The rise for the day erased the decline in the pair from the weak US GDP last Friday. We are back where it all started.
The EURUSD traded between the 100 hour MA (currently 1.1160) and the 200 hour MA (currently at 1.1120) before the release. The subsequent fall saw the price move below the 200 day MA and the 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart at the 1.1077 level. The break below that key level sent the pair to a low of 1.1043 before buyers into the London close and the NY afternoon, saw the pair move back above the MA levels. The week is ending near those MA levels. They will be in play in the new trading week.
The GBPUSD - already coming off a bearish day from the BOE stimulus on Thursday, got hit for a 2nd time (although the pair did rally into the release before getting hit back down). The pair slid below the 1.3097 low from yesterday, and continued to the lowest level going back to July 12. Like the EURUSD, there was an end of day rally into the London close that extended into the NY afternoon. The price correction stalled at the 50% midpoint of the days range before settling at the 1.3067 level. In the new trading week, if the bears are to remain in control, a move below the 1.3046 will be eyed.
Since the cut by the RBA on Tuesday, the AUDUSD has been bid. The price before the release hat moved up to 0.7663, just short of the 0.7675 high from July 15. The fall off the strong data sent the pair right down to the 100 hour MA at the 0.7600 area. The bounce higher took the pair to 0.7626 before settling between the 100 hour MA below and the high corrective price above (at 0.7615). If the price is going down next week, sellers will need to push the price below the 100 hour MA. That MA was tested on Wednesday's correction as well and bounced.
The USDJPY's initial move off the data was a modest 55 pips or so to the 100 hour MA (at 101.40 currently). The pair eventually pushed above that MA level but stalled around the 102.00 level (102.05 was the high). Like the other pairs, the correction came around the London close and took the winds out of the buyers/bulls sails. IN trading next week, traders will likely lean against the 100 hour MA on dips (101.40). If there is a move below, the buyers will likely go with the flow.
Hoping you all have a great weekend.
