Forex news for North American trading on November 4, 2016:
- October 2016 US non farm payrolls 161k vs 175k exp
- Canada Oct employment +43.9K vs -15.0K expected
- Fed's Fischer: Most recent data strengthened rate hike case
- ECB's Constancio: On present trend, Eurozone inflation could hit 1.3% by March
- The case for removing accommodation is strengthening: Fed's Kaplan
- Baker Hughes Rig count 450 vs 441 prior
- Fed's Lockhart: There is a high bar for not moving in December
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow jumps to 3.1% vs 2.3% prior
- October Canadian Ivey PMI 59.7 vs 56.0 expected
- Trump aide: 'Disastrous' jobs data shows Obama-Clinton failure
- UK's Johnson: We're not leaving Europe, we're committed to a partnership
- Bill Gross: December Fed hike is a 'slam dunk' real question is what happens next
- Fed's Lockhart: Economy approaching full employment
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: They love the Aussie and hate the euro
- ECB's Constancio: On present trend, Eurozone inflation could hit 1.3% by March
Oil (in order of appearance)
- Saudi Arabia threatened to steeply raise oil output at OPEC meeting
- Saudi Arabia denies they threatened to hike output
- All producers including Saudi Arabia could raise production if there is no agreement - sources
Markets:
- Gold up $2 to $1304
- WTI crude down 56-cents to $44.10
- S&P 500 down 3.5 points to 2085
- US 10-year yields down 3.5 points to 1.77%
- CHF leads, NZD lags
Today's market moves showed that it's still all about the election. Even the reaction to a strong nonfarm payrolls report faded quickly and the US dollar sagged.
EUR/USD dipped down to 1.1080 after the non-farm payrolls report but despite solid jobs and wage growth, the decline was only 25 pips and after two hours it had reversed and the pair slowly climbed to 1.1125 and then up to 1.1140 in a final push as it closed at the best levels of the day.
Cable struggled ahead of 1.2500 for a period but broke through late in the day as cable shorts were covered. The gains continued into the London close and a high of 1.2560. After Europe went home it sagged back to 1.2490 before finishing just above the big figure.
USD/JPY was in a chop in the 102.90 to 103.25 range. The S&P 500 was positive for most of the day but slumped in the final 90 minutes of trading to fall for the ninth day in a row. Despite the sag, USD/JPY was virtually unmoved and finished at 103.07.
USD/CAD was lively. The Canadian jobs report was strong but it was all part-time jobs and the market has lost some confidence in the accuracy of the data after months and months of strong numbers. The initial drop in USD/CAD was down to 1.3375 but the ebb and flow of the US dollar and oil/OPEC headlines sent it up to a cycle high of 1.3465. But USD weakness later led to a retracement back to 1.3400.
The Australian dollar fell 40 pips to a session low of 0.7652 in Early US trading but rebounded to 0.7680 late.
Have a great weekend!
On the week, the pound was the top performer while USD and CAD lagged.
