Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Auto sales were pretty strong. USD mixed.

Forex news for trading on October 3, 2017.

• US major indices close at record levels across the board
• Brexit minister David Davis says contingencies include walking away with no deal
• September was a huge month for US auto sales
• Canadian light vehicle sales up 7.7% y/y in September
• Spain's king Felipe says Catalan leaders showed an 'inadmissible lack of loyalty'
• Is a US tax cut priced in?
• Crude oil futures settle at $50.42
• Goldman Sachs CEO says he's "thinking about Bitcoin"
• Cable falls below the August high but BOE hike hopes still high
• What's on Warren Buffett's mind
• USD/CAD: Awaiting a move towards 1.2650 to trigger a strong sell signal - TD
• The frontline of political warfare is the internet and all the tactics are dirty (of course Soros is there)
• BOC's Leduc: Canada's growth rate should decline in next few quarters
• UBS CEO says central banks have no clue how to get out of extraordinary policies
• Spain's IBEX rebounds today. Most European major indices are higher
• Your bank knows how to create inflation -- fees
• Bitcoin technicals: Bitcoin dips below 100 hour MA. Careful
• New Zealand GDT price index -2.4%
• What would a collapse of fiat currency look like?
• ISM New York business conditions 49.7 vs 56.6 prior
• Fed's Powell speaking but on regulatory reform
• UK Trade Secretary Fox: If there is no deal by March, the UK will have to walk
• The EUR is the strongest, while the NZD is the weakest.

In other market, a snapshot at the end of the day shows:

• Spot gold up $0.71 to 1271.63. The high extended to 1274.89. The low reached 1268.42.
• WTI crude oil traded in a narrow range today but remained above the $50 level. The contract is trading at $50.39, down -$0.19. The high reached $50.73. The low extended to $50.22.
• US yields are marginally lower. The 2 year is at 1.471%, down -1.1 bp. The 5 year is 1.9179%, down -1.6 bp. The 10 year is 2.3247%, down -1.6 bp. The 30 year is 2.8641%, down -0.9 bp.
• US stocks are ending the day with record gains. S&P is up 5.46 points or 0.22%. The Nasdaq is up 15 point or 0.23%. The Dow is up 84 points or 0.37%.

The market traded quietly in the NY session as it waits for the US employment data at the end of the week. The expectations for employment are for only 80K non farm payroll jobs, but the data this month and next (at least) will be influenced by the hurricanes. So it will be hard to interpret. The Unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 6.2%. BTW Canada will also release employment data on Friday, with their net change in employment expected at 12.0K.

Tomorrow in the US the ADP employment change will be released at 8:15 AM ET/1215 GMT. The expectation is for a gain of 135K vs 237K last month. That might give trading a push.

The dollar was up earlier in the session against most of the currency pairs, but is ending the day mixed (see chart below). The greenback rose the most against the NZD (up 0.51%), and the GBP (+0.26%), but fell modestly against the EUR (-0.13%,), the CHF (-0.11%), CAD (-0.18%) and AUD (-0.11%). It was near unchanged vs. the JPY.

There was little in the way of major economic news today.

A regional Fed business condition index was released out of NY. The NY ISM business conditions index showed a sharp fall to 49.7 from 56.6 last month. A move below the 50 level signals a contraction in the region. The impact was a little dollar negative but the market largely ignored the fall.

Later, from New Zealand, the Global Dairy Trade auction showed prices fell -2.4%. That was bad enough to send the NZDUSD lower and helped to make that currency the weakest of the day (see ranking in the chart above).

US September car sales were released throughout the trading day, and they came in much better than expectations:

• Fiat Chrysler sales were down 9.7% of that was better than the expectations of -13%
• Four sales were up 8.9% versus estimate of +2.3%
• GM sales were up 11.9% versus estimate of +7.9%
• Nissan's sales were up 9.5% versus estimate of +8.7%
• Honda's sales were up 6.8% versus estimates of +1.5%

The total vehicle sales came in at 18.57M seasonally adjusted (annual rate). That was higher than the 16.9M estimate, and the 16.14M last month. The hurricanes impacted the data but it was good news all around. The number was the highest since July 2005 according to Autodata.

Canada car sales were also released and they showed a healthy 7.7% YoY gain in September.

President Trump visited Puerto Rico where they are still looking to get their feet under them after the hurricane Irma wrecked their country and infrastructure Tomorrow Trump will visit Las Vegas where the death toll from the massacre is at 59 with 527 wounded. The names and faces and stories are beginning to surface. Many questions remain to be answered.

Technically,

The EURUSD fell in early Asian trading and in the process fell below the 1.1709-20 cluster of support area. That is home to the 200 week MA, the low from last week, a 38.2% retracement and a swing high from August 2015. The low today extended to 1.1695. However, when the price moved back above the 1.1720 level, the sellers started to cover. The high price extended above the 100 hour MA at 1.1762 to a day high at 1.1774, but like the break below support, the break of resistance also failed. Going into the new trading day, the 100 hour MA above at 1.1762 and the cluster of support at 1.1709-20 will be the goal posts for traders to either trade between or break out.

The USDJPY tried to extend for the 4th time above the 112.815-93 area. If you go back to June/July, that area was home to swing levels that defined bullish above and bearish below (see post here). The last 5 days has seen that area broken 4 separate times including today and each time the break has failed. Not good for the bulls. However, the corrections have been modest and mostly higher. At some point the market will make a break for it. The range over the last 5 trading days is only 105 pips. That is relatively narrow.

The CAD is the strongest currency today (see chart above). The USDCAD is ending the session right on the 100 hour MA at 1.2482. Key initial support for the pair. Hold and the bulls remain in control. On a break, the 200 hour MA and a cluster of other swing levels at the 1.2412-15 will be eyed (see post here outlining the key levels and charts).

The GBPUSD sideways it's way between a broken trend line above and a lower trend line connecting lows below (see chart below). Traders will be look to lean against the level until there is a break. Then they will look for momentum.

The NZDUSD fell to test the 200 day MA at 0.71527. The price traded above and below the key MA level but is closing just above the level. Key support.

The AUDUSD fell on the back of the RBA decision earlier in the day, but recovered to tests it's 100 hour MA at the close at 0.7830. That MA is key for bias into the new day. Move above, more bullish. Stay below and the sellers remain in control.

Have a good day