Forex news 4 US trading on March 3, 2016
- US initial jobless claims 278k vs 271k exp
- Feds Kaplan. US economy likely resilient in 2016
- US Non-Manufacturing index for February 53.4 vs. 53.1 exp.
- ISM Nieves: Services holding steady
- US Non Farm Productivity for 4Q revised to -2.2% from -3.0% prior
- US stocks end day higher...albeit modestly
- GBPUSD looks to test highs and moving average resistance again
- A graphical look at the trends in the US employment statistics
- Dollar selling cools...
- Romney speaks. Dollar falls
- Why isn't USDJPY higher?
- Pound on the march after cracking 1.4100
- January 2016 US factory orders 1.6% vs 2.0% exp m/m
- February 2016 US Markit services PMI final 49.7 vs 49.8 exp
- Germany's Schaeuble: We would cry if the UK votes to leave the EU
- Delaying bailout review would be bad news for Greece says EU
The USD moved lower in trading today. The US data was not so great, gold rallied about 1.6%, and technical levels were breached.
As far as data goes, initial jobless claims came in at 278K vs 271K estimates. So a touch worse than expected. The ISM service index came out better than expected at 53.4 vs 53.1 BUT, the employment component fell below the 50 level. With the US employment due out tomorrow at 8:30 AM (see preview of the employment trends here), the weakish data gave traders a reason to perhaps cover some dollar longs. So the green back slid.
The EURUSD was a big gainer today - rising above the 100 hour MA in the London morning session (at 1.0885 currently) and then above the 100 day MA in the NA session. The 100 day MA comes in at 1.0929 and given the narrow ranges seen in the Asia Pacific and Europe/London morning sessions, I would not be surprised if traders used that level to buy on any dips. The level is about 25-30 pips from late NY session levels.
The GBPUSD had an up and down time of it in early European trading today, but it too caught a bid and raced higher in the NA session. The rally took the price above the 38.2% of the move down from the February high, but stalled short of the 1.4200 level. At the peak the pair was also testing the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. It held on two separate tests today (currently at 1.4190).
The USDJPY did a lap higher and lower in tradiing today. ON the way back down, the pair moved back below the 100 hour MA at the 113.49 level but could not close below. The final 5 or 6 hours was spent leaning against the level as support, but the price stayed above it.
The AUDUSD and NZDUSD were big gainers today. Copper was up 1.33% and Aluminium was up 1.11%. Gold was also up by 1.6%. Yesterday, the 200 day MA was breached for the 1st time since Sept 2014 in the AUDUSD. Today, the pair got within about 8 pips of the double top from October 2015 and December 2015 at 0.7384 area. The pair has moved up from a low 0.7108 three days ago. Can it go higher? Yes. But that level might give cause for pause first.
The USDCAD moved closer to the key 50% midpoint level (from May 2015 low) at 1.3304 ane the 200 day MA at 1.3278 (currently). The trend of the USDCAD has been so bullish, it has not trading below the 200 day MA since September 2014 (yes...just like the AUDUSD). Keep that key level in mind on further weakness... PS no canada employment tomorrow. It will come out next week.
US employment tomorrow. Risk will be elevated. So prepare accordingly (or take the day off) Have a good evening....
Below is the change in the major currencies vs each other for the day.
