Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar rebounds/recovers on better data

Forex news for US trading on October 25th, 2016

The major market indices end the day mixed.
A second earthquake reported near Perugia
The technical picture: Dollar moves back higher in NY trading
US crude oil future settle at $49.18 per barrel
DB: Follow USDCHF higher. Caution on GBPUSD and EURUSD
Q3 GDP tracking moving up: CNBC
ECB Praet: ECB policy measures are clearly effective
Did I miss the European stock close? Come back Ryan...
Weekly crude oil inventories -553K vs +2M estimate
Better data sends the dollar back higher after a push lower fails
Barclays raises 3Q GDP estimate
US new home sales for September 593K vs 600k estimate
Sources: ECB almost certain to keep buying bonds beyond March
Markit services PMI for October 54.8 vs. 52.5 estimate
Crude oil futures dip below $49.00 (to $48.93). Bounces off support area.
It's Hillary Clinton's birthday (why that might matter)
US wholesale inventories for September +0.2% vs estimate of +0.1%
Sept advance US goods trade balance -$56.1B vs -$60.5B expected
The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day

Fundamentally today:

Advanced US goods trade balance showed a smaller deficit. That contributes to 3Q GDP (less negative then expectations).
Wholesale inventories were a touch higher than expectations at +0.2% vs +0.1%
Markit Services and Composite PMI were better than expectations (highest since November 2015).
New home sales were a little lower than expectations but remains near high levels Low supply still a concern (4.8 months supply).

Overall, the fundamental data in the US suggests that GDP estimates for Q3 will be revised higher. The all important GDP will be released on Friday at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT.

What about some of our favorite pairs. For a technical review of some of the major currency pairs CLICK HERE.

Below are highlights for some of the pairs....

EURUSD: The pair is ending the day higher but well off the highs. At the high the price moved above the 200 hour MA at the 1.0940 area, but the break was short and sweet. The subsequent move lower took the pair back to the 1.0900 level. The 100 hour MA is at 1.0889 currently and will be a key level to get below and stay below if the bears are to take more control.

GBPUSD: This pair remained bid while the EURUSD moved lower. The EURGBP weakness helped to keep the GBPUSD supported. Technically, the GBPUSD moved above the 100 hour MA about 7 hours ago (currently at 1.2213) and remained above that MA line. Stay above in the new trading day and the upside can continue to be explored.

USDJPY: The USDJPY held support against an upward sloping trend line (from the Oct 19 low on the hourly chart) and that helped keep the pair bid today. Resistance was tested against the high from October 13 at 104.62 and that stalled the rally. Support in the new day will be eyed at 104.36-44. Stay above is more bullish, move below and the pair is heading back into the meat of the October range.

USDCAD: This pair bounded off the 100 hour MA on a drawdown of oil inventories (CAD and oil moved higher). However, that level held support, oil prices reversed back lower and the USDCAD ended up moving to new session highs and topside trend line resistance at 1.3380. That will be a key level in the new trading day.

USDCHF: The USDCHF - like the EURUSD - moved lower against the dollar today but recovered a lot of the losses by the end of the day. This pair is testing the 100 hour MA at 0.99399

In other markets:

S&P was down -0.17%
Nasdaq down -0.63%
Dow up +0.17%
10 year yield up to 1.7896% up 3 basis points
Spot gold $1266, down $7
Crude oil $49.18, -0.79%

Below is a snap shot at the major currencies vs each other. The GBP is the strongest, while the JPY is the weakest. The USD was mixed with gains against the JPY, CAD, AUD and NZD and declines against the EUR, GBP and CHF.