Forex news for US trading on April 26, 2016
- Doubleline's Gundlach says "buy treasuries"
- US stocks end the day mixed
- S&P little changed as Apple earnings awaited
- Forex technical analysis: AUDUSD setting up for CPI data in new trading day
- Chinese speculation could be behind the surge in industrial commodities
- Spain will hold a fresh election
- Five reasons to buy the US dollar- BAML
- Will the FOMC use April statement to set the stage for action in June? - RBS
- ECB's Constancio: Regulatory toolkit should be able to influence demand
- BOE's Cunliffe: FPC is monitoring property markets closely
- US sells 5-year notes at 1.410% vs 1.405% WI
- ECB's Weidmann: Expansive monetary policy is absolutely appropriate
- New elections in Spain are unavoidable
- March 2016 French jobseekers -60k vs -11k exp
- There's a bigger driver of the pound than just Brexit news
- Cable slides after Brexit poll shows the 'leave' side ahead
- ECB could given Greece cheap access to funding after review - RTRS source
- FOMC remains shorthanded as nominees continue to wait for confirmation
- April US consumer confidence 94.2 vs 95.8 expected
- April 2016 US Richmond Fed manufacturing index 14 vs 12 exp
- Markit April prelim US services PMI 52.1 vs 52.0 expected
- Durables are durabulls for US stocks at the open
- Poloz doesn't have a clue when the time will be right to raise rates
- February 2016 US Case/Shiller 20 city HPI 0.7% vs 0.8% exp m/m SA
- Bank of Canada's Poloz: Trade slowdown should reverse as global econ recovers
- Philly Fed April non-manufacturing index 13.5 vs 13.9 prior
- March 2016 US durable goods orders 0.8% vs 1.8% exp m/m
- US Durable goods: The worst data point of the month
The FOMC and the BOJ will meet and announce decisions over the next few days with the FOMC expected to keep policy unchanged. The BOJ may look to add more stimulus. The JPY was weaker ahead of that decision.
The USD was weaker as well. Durable goods orders disappointed. After a -3.1% decline in February, this month was expected to rebound by 1.9%. That was not to be. The headline number came in +0.8% and that set the tone for dollar in the morning. Later in the day, the greenback recovered somewhat against some of the pairs including the EUR, GBP and JPY.
For the EURUSD, the pair pushed and extended to resistance near the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (at 1.1333), as well as a resistance area defined by prior swing lows and highs (at 1.1333 to 1.1345 area - see technical post here). Once resistance held, the pair started to come back down with most of the durable goods surge, reversed.. Support on the downside held against the 100 hour MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.1278 area. This will be a key technical level in the new trading day.
The GBP was the strongest currency for the day, rising the most against the JPY and the USD. The GBPUSD was another currency that reached a resistance level and found sellers after the durable goods report. For it, the resistance came against the 38.2% retracemetn at 1.46339. The high price extended to 1.4638 and rotated lower from there. Most of the gain was maintained in the pair (the 50% of the days range was not breached at 1.4558 - the low corrective price reached 1.4564). There is trend line support on the hourly chart at 1.4547 (and moving up a few pips each hour). Stay above and the bulls remain in control.
Although the JPY was the weakest currency of the day, the most action was vs the JPY crosses. The USDJPY was down modestly on the day. With the FOMC and the BOJ it is not much of a surprise. Nevertheless, the pair did extend above 111.00 area and move to a high of 111.48. This gives the pair a more more bullish technical bias through the central bank decisions.
IN the commodity currencies, the USDCAD fell as dollar weakness was helped by rising oil prices. For the AUDUSD and NZDUSD each rose ahead of key data to be released in the new trading day. In Australia, the quarterly CPI (est +0.2 and +1.7% YoY) will be released (see post here). In NZDUSD the monthly trade balance is expected to show a 405M surplus. Commodity prices in general were higher on the day.
The table below shows the changes of the major currencies vs each other. The GBP was the strongest today. The JPY is the weakest.
Crude oil was up 3.19%. Gold was up 0.3% to $1242. US bond yields rose by 2-3 basis points
