Forex news for NA trading Thursday March 24 2016
- US equities end the day little changed
- Fed's Kaplan in WSJ interview: We want to normalize rates as fast as we can
- Home prices rising faster than wages: RealtyTrac
- Fed's Lacker: Important Fed focus on promoting stable inflation
- ForexLive Easter trading hours
- Baker Hughes oil rig count 372 vs 387 prior
- February 2016 French jobseekers 3591.0k vs 3555.3k exp
- No Easter bunny bounce for European stocks
- USDJPY could break 110 soon
- Atlanta Fed GDP estimate 1.4% vs 1.9% last
- Moody's: New Zealand economy continues to see moderate growth
- S&P working its way back toward a test of the 200 day MA
- March 2016 US KC Fed manufacturing index -14 vs -8 prior
- Iraqi oil minister resigns - Livesquawk
- Fed is going up very slowly on interest rates says Bullard
- March 2016 US Markit services PMI flash 51.0 vs 51.4 exp
- Dollar disappointed by durable goods report but all isn't as bad as it seems
- Oil tumbles for second day, what's next
- Predictions of imminent inflation have proved wrong says Bullard
- US dollar momentum halted by soft durable goods orders
- US initial jobless claims w/e 19 March 265k vs 269k exp
- February 2016 US durable goods orders -2.8% vs -2.9% exp m/m
- Option expiries casting a shadow over EURUSD
- Fed's Bullard: Fed forecasts suggest next hike may not be far off
Ok...it is the day before a 4-day weekend for many. It is just a few days after more terrorism rocked the world. And the forex market traded accordingly.
The dollar was mixed - rising against the JPY and the CAD, down against the GBP (which was the strongest currency today after falling over the first three days of the week), and barely changed against the EUR, CHF, AUD and NZD (<5 pip change).
The US stock market was down early, but recovered and closed with fractional changes (the Nasdaq was the big mover at +0.1%. Big whoop).
Crude oil was down over 2% or so at the lows, but recovered and ended up down about -0.58% - which is near unchanged for the black gold.
Gold was down -0.6%.
Fundamentally, initial claims continued to show a strong employment picture. The 4-week moving average comes in at 259.75 little changed from last week. That is low. On the negative side, Durable goods data disappointed. That - coupled with the lower housing data earlier in the week -led to a move lower in the Atlanta Fed GDP estimate from 1.9% to 1.4%. That is better than the prior years Q1s when harsh weather hurt GDP, but it is not 2 to 2.5% growth that was once hoped.
And then there was James Bullard. He made his initial comments at 8:15 AM ET where he said that Fed forecast suggest next hike may not be far off, then he started backtracking a bit.
Major technical moves in major currencies?
The EURUSD stalled at the 38.2% of the move up from the ECB day low at 1.1143. It was also a trend line support. The pair grinded higher to 1.1185 - two pips short of the high for the day and 5 pips above the close from yesterday. Going forward 1.1200 is where the 200 hour MA is currently. The 1.1215 is the 100 hour MA. With the price at 1.1176. Support at 1.1143 and resistance at 1.1200-15 we are about in the middle a range.
The GBPUSD bounced off the low from last week at 1.4054 - completing a trading lap that saw the price move up from 1.4054 to 1.4513 and back down to 1.4054 in 6 trading days. Vroom....Vroom. There is lots of overheard resistance at 1.4230-1.4270, although it will be hard to get up there with a 4-day weekend starting.
The USDJPY fell from trend line resistance at the 113.00 level (I guess 113.00 may have had an influence as well) and went down to the 200 hour MA at the 112.40 area. The selling stalled and the rest of the session was spent moving back higher. The pair is ending the day at 112.84. The 113.00 will be a level above that will need to be broken - and stay broken - if the pair is to go higher.
The USDCAD moved above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (and closed above the MA) for the first time since January 26th. Did the pair go into overdrive? No. More like first gear before heading back into reverse and closing - give or take a pip or two - away from MA level at 1.3245.
Speaking of the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, the AUDUSD bounced off the MA level, and moved back toward the resistance line - or area - in the sand between 0.75316 and 0.7558. If the bears are to keep control, that area should hold and a move lower will restart. If the buyers off the 100 bar MA, have retaken control, They will need to win the battle at this area. So strap on the protective helmet. There is going to be a rough fight ahead.
Of course all of the above may have to wait until Monday or even Tuesday when the trading forces are back at full force.
As Ryan mentioned, the Easter holiday is a faith filled time for some, a long weekend for others. Whatever is your preference, have peace filled time with friends and family and hate less, love more.
