Forex news for NY trading on November 22, 2016
- Preview: US durable goods orders report could put focus back on economy
- S&P 500 closes above 2200 for the first time
- OPEC delegates firmly agreed to six months of quotas - report
- Forex technical analysis: AUDUSD pushes against the 100 hour MA
- Repatriation won't be a big boost for US dollar
- US Crude oil futures settle at $48.03 per barrel.
- OPEC committee finished work "successfully" - report
- Trump said to plan to fill two Federal Reserve vacancies in first 3 months
- US sells 5-year notes at 1.760% vs 1.760% WI
- USDJPY double top and lower trend line define the range. What next?
- TPP can't proceed without US backing, Canadian trade minister says
- Oil falls on worries that Iran and Iraq will sabotage OPEC deal
- USD/JPY: 6 reasons to start unwinding longs into year-end - Nomura
- A late wilt for European stocks at the close
- Your business friendly EU has your debts covered
- America is greater than ever for the 0.1%
- Italian court hoofs out referendum case
- US Oct existing home sales 5.60m vs 5.44m expected
- November 2016 Eurozone consumer confidence flash -6.1 vs -7.8 exp
- November 2016 US Richmond Fed manufacturing index 4 vs 0 exp
- OPEC deal will be historic says Venezuela oil minister
- Brexit will have a negative impact on UK investments says EU's Dijsselbloem
- Output cut of 4-4.5% to be debated next week - Reuters
- Philly Fed non-manufacturing index drops in November
- Canadian September retail sales ex autos 0.0% vs +0.5% exp
- Canadian retail sales could steer the Bank of Canada
- The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day
- Are we seeing the early signs of a top in USDJPY?
In other markets:
- The major stock indices closed at record highs for the 2nd straight day
- The S&P index rose by +4.76 points or 0.22% to 2202.94. The high extended to 2204.80. The low reached 2194.51
- The NASDAQ composite index rose by 17.492 points more 0.33% to 5386.35
- The Dow industrial average increase by 67.18 points or 0.35% to 19023.87
- European stocks ended the day higher
- The January crude oil futures contract is trading at $47.91, $-.33 or -0.70%
- Spot gold is trading at 1212, $-2.11 or -0.17%
- US 10 year note yield 2.3119%, unchanged on the day. The five-year note is trading at 1.7762%, +0.7 basis points
Some minor (in importance) data releases came out in the US today. The existing home sales was the most important as it represents a large % of the US housing market. However, the data was collected BEFORE the run up in yields post the US election. So although the sales pace was better than expectations at 5.6M annualized units (est was lower at 5.43M), the number is likely to trend lower as the affordability gets more difficult with the higher rates. The market reaction was dollar supportive but let's just say, the greenback had it's share of ups and downs today.
In other data, Richmond Fed manufacturing index was better a+4 versus 0 and -4 last week. Canada retail sales were worse than expectations if you look at the core figure (0.0% vs +0.6% estimate).
How did some of our favorite pairs trade today?
The EURUSD whipped higher and whipped lower. Remember yesterday,, the pair closed higher for the first time in 10 trading sessions. Today, it closed higher once again, but only by 2 pips. In between,, the price had its share of ups and downs. Of significance from a technical perspective is that the 100 hour moving average held resistance in the New York session (it is currently at 1.06334). On the downside support held against swing lows from November 18 and November 21 on the hourly chart at the 1.0581 level. Above that support heading into the new trading day, is a trend line cutting across at 1.0609. Keep an eye on that level in early trading in the new day.
The USDJPY today, it too traded up and down. It ended the day higher (by about 25 pips) at 111.03, but off the highs at 111.35. That high matched the high from Monday's trading setting a double top at the highs. On the down side a trend line on the hourly chart connecting the three swing lows cuts across at 110.96 currently. A move below that line and staying below, will look toward another trend line connecting the Nov 18 and Nov 22 lows on the hourly chart at the 110.52 level. The 100 hour MA at 110.37 (and moving higher) is another support target on a move lower. The double top at 111.35, opens up upside for further gains with 111.70 the next target.
The GBP was was the weakest currency in trading today. The move lower in the GBPUSD retraced below the 50% of the move up from Friday's low (50% comes in at 1.2406) - and erased most of the spike gain seen in yesterday's trading. However a late day modest rebound, sent the price back above the midpoint level, and closed the pair right at the 100 hour MA at 1.24176. The fall in the GBPUSD was helped by the rise in the EURGBP which also moved toward it's 100 hour MA at the 0.8562 level (closing at 0.8554).
In other pairs:
- The USDCAD fell in early trading despite worse than expected core retail sales. The catalyst was higher oil prices. However as oil prices started to come back down, the USDCAD found a bid that took the pair toward the 100 hour MA at 1.3457. The MA stalled the rise and the pair is closing the day at 1.3438.
- The AUDUSD kept on banging against the 100 hour MA (at 0.73958 but could not break above with any momentum. In the last hour, the price moved above the MA and closed at 0.7400. However, traders will want to see continuation buying in the early Asian Pacific session to believe the moving average break.
Below is a snapshot of the % changes of major currencies vs each other. The AUD was the strongest in trading today, while the GBP was the weakest.
