Forex news for New York trading on June 22, 2016:
Polls:
- ComRes (phone): Remain 48% and Leave 42%
- YouGov (online): Remain 51% and Leave 49%
- TNS poll results: 43% leave, 41% remain
- Opinium Brexit poll 44% remain 45% leave
Data/news:
- US June weekly EIA oil inventories -917K vs -1500K expected
- June 2016 Eurozone consumer confidence flash -7.3 vs -7.0 exp
- May US existing home sales 5.53m vs 5.55m expected
- Juncker: There will be no renegotiation after UK referendum
- April 2016 US FHFA HPI 0.2% vs 0.6% exp m/m
- April 2016 Canadian retail sales 0.9% vs 0.9% exp m/m
- UK Post Office notes large cash demand for USD and EUR ahead of Brexit vote
- US Fed's Powell says they are prepared for any Brexit referendum outcome
- Yellen: Fed hasn't scheduled a special post-Brexit meeting
- Yellen continues to bet on consumer spending over jobs
Markets:
- WTI crude down 72-cents to $49.13
- US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 1.68%
- S&P 500 down 3.5 points to 2085
- Gold down $2 to $1266
- AUD leads, JPY lags
The ebb and flow in trading today was all about the polls. The early numbers showed 'leave' ahead and that weighed on the pound while the numbers released at the US close showed 'remain' on top and they've given GBP/USD a big boost to the highest levels this year.
GBP/USD is trading at 1.4775 after falling as low as 1.4639 on earlier polls. At the start of US trading there was a quick spike up to 1.4670 but it was beaten back in fairly short order.
EUR/USD took advantage of a soft US dollar early and hit 1.1325 but then fell back to 1.1275 on Brexit worries but the latest move to a session high came on the two end-of-day polls.
USD/JPY continually found good support at 104.30 throughout the day and made a run up to 104.90 from 104.40 on the polls.
USD/CAD was on a different schedule. Good retail sales numbers knocked it down to 1.2740 but the data was for April and the market is worried about now. The pair recovered quickly to 1.2770 and then oil started to roll over and it was a choppy trip up to 1.2850 before a late slide to 1.2800.
