Forex news for NY trading on December 22, 2016.
- US stocks are ending in the red for the day
- US WTI crude oil futures settle at $52.95 per barrel
- Cable sinks back to a retest of the lows of the day
- How has the EURCAD done today?
- Fade any GBP short-covering into New Year - SocGen
- Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD building more value below the 1.2350 area
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2.5%. Down from 2.6% last.
- Minor loses for European equities at the close
- EURUSD still hasn't closed above the 200 hour MA
- Current oil prices are not sustainable says Saudi oil minister
- December 2016 US KC Fed manufacturing index 24 vs 9 prior
- Pound takes a plunge at the fix
- ECB to wait until after German elections for next policy move - Reuters
- November 2016 US leading index 0.0% vs 0.2% exp
- November 2016 US personal income 0.0% vs 0.3% exp m/m
- October 2016 US FHFA House price index 0.4% vs 0.5% exp m/m
- Transport and shopping center closed on security alert in Berlin - Livesquawk
- November 2016 Chicago Fed national activity index -0.27 vs -0.10 exp
- Canada October retail sales +1.1% vs +0.3% expected
- US initial jobless claims w/e 17 Dec 275k vs 257k exp
- Canada November CPI +1.2% y/y vs +1.4% y/y expected
- US GDP (3Q) final revised higher to 3.5% vs 3.3% est.
- November 2016 US durable goods orders -4.6% vs -4.7% exp m/m
- The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day
In other markets today:
- S&P index --4.22 points or -0.19%
- NASDAQ composite index -24.01 points or -0.44%
- Dow industrial average -23.08 points or -0.12%
- 2 year notes 1.192%, unchanged
- 5 -year notes 2.035%, +1.7 basis points
- 10 year note 2.553%, +1.8 basis points
- 30 year bond 3.125%,, +1.8 basis points
- Spot gold is trading at $1129, $-2.61 or -0.23%
- Crude oil is trading at $52.60, plus $.11 or 0.21%
The market was barraged with a slew of data today. US GDP, Durable goods, Personal income/spending, initial claims, PCE. In Canada, retail sales and CPI were released.. The data was enough of a mixed bag, that at the end of the dollar then greenback was higher, but mixed. The dollar rose against the GBP, CAD and AUD, but down marginally against the EUR, CHF and NZD. Overall, I guess you can say, the market continued to be influence more by the flows than anything else as the week comes to an end and traders prepare for the holiday week ahead. We can expect limited trading activity in the new day but below are my views for some of the major currency pairs.
EURUSD: Apart from a 5 minute period soon after the weaker than expected US 10 AM ET data, the EURUSD traded with the 200 hour MA above and the 100 hour MA below (MA are currently at 1.0487 and 1.0422 respectively). When the price made the day highs at 1.0498, the 200 hour MA was at 1.0491. That break FAILED. The move lower fell back below another worthy level at 1.0462. Remember, that level was the low print from February 2015. After that level was broken, the corrective high stalled at 1.04615 before wandering down toward NY session lows at 1.0430. Although the action in the later half of the NY session was more bearish, the pair is still ending the day, 1. Higher on the day (closed at 1.0421) and 2. Above the 100 hour MA at 1.04225. So this could just be a dip into support. The good news - from a technical perspective at least - is that the 1.0462 established as a key level and then the 200 hour MA above. On the downside a break of the 100 hour MA should solicit more selling in the new trading day
USDJPY: The USDJPY had a tough time going higher or lower today. The range was a benign 61 pips from the low to the high. The day started by moving higher to the high at 117.87. The move extended away from the 100 hour MA (at 117.60 at the time). The weaker US data helped send the pair back lower to 117.26. That took the price back below the 100 hour MA. The last 5 hours was spent trading above and below the MA in the middle of the two extremes. The market is unsure of the next move. Remembering that the 118.06-51 is a key resistance area to the topside, the pair traded below that extreme (the high was only 117.87). However, the lows from this week are progressively higher at 116.53, 117.09 and today at 117.26. So the corrective / consolidation is more bull flaggish.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is trading near the lows for the day after testing a support area at 1.2275-79 as the day moved toward the close (the low traded to 1.2277). That level is the next key downside target and so far, it is holding. A break below will be needed in the new day to have the pair continue the bearish run. Apart from that, the significance of the day is we moved further away from the 1.2350-79 area in trading today. That floor area was defined by a number of different lows going back to early November (see chart below). The last few trading days has traded more within that range. Today we made a more bearish break lower. That is more bearish especially after trading for so long above that floor. The only caveat is the support at 1.2275 level. That area needs to be broken to give sellers more confidence.
USDCHF. The USDCHF story is like the EURUSD. For it, the price fell below the 200 hour MA (currently at 1.0227). That was the first break below that MA since the FOMC day. The low extended to 1.0217 but it quickly bounced back higher. On the topside the 100 hour MA held (that MA comes in at 1.0265). So we end and start the new trading day between the two MA levels). Traders may lean against the extremes in the new trading day, and look for a break and run.
NZDUSD: The NZDUSD traded up and down, up and down, up and up and down. The high extended to 0.69247. The low reached 0.6887. The low on Wednesday reached 0.6886. The low on Tuesday reached 0.68816. The additional day of up and down activity has allowed for the 100 hour MA to come further down . It now is at 0.6926 right near the highs for the day. The market will have a decision to make soon. Move above the 100 hour MA and start more of a correction higher OR break below the floor in the 0.6881-86 area and resume the trend lower?
USDCAD: The USDCAD extended above a trend line on the daily chart at 1.3443 and raced higher. This despite better retail sales. The CPI data was lower than expected though. The price peaked at the 1.35195 level. The next upside target comes in at 1.3534-38 which was a string of highs from Nov 24th to Nov 28th.
EURJPY: The EURJPY rallied into the NY session but came off in the late NY trading session. The pair is down testing the 200 hour mA at 122.68. The 100 hour MA is at 122.48. A move below each would be more bearish technically.
Below are the % changes of the major currencies vs each other on the day.
For those traders in the Asian Pacific session have a Merry Christmas/Happy Holiday! Peace on earth. Goodwill to all.
