Forex news for NY trading on December 21, 2016
- Small losses for US stocks as volatility wilts
- US crude oil futures settle at $52.49
- Which currency pair is the biggest mover today?
- Here is how a 'border tax' would impact the USD - Goldman Sachs
- End of day flows (end of year flows?) are kicking the pairs around
- Less than inspiring ranges as European stock markets close
- USDJPY moves higher into the London fixing
- Trudeau hoping to triumph with Trump on Keystone
- Large bank on the offer in EURUSD
- US EIA weekly oil inventories 2256k vs -2500k exp
- November 2016 US existing home sales 5.61m vs 5.50m exp
- December 2016 Eurozone consumer confidence flash -5.1 vs -6.0 exp
- Forex technical analysis: USDCAD scoots higher
- The life of EURUSD in 2017 by Danske Bank
- Greece to reach a solution with creditors soon
- UK public spending to increase as inflation and investment rise say OBR
- The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day
- US MBA mortgage applications 2.5% vs -4.0% prior
In other markets today:
- S&P index -5.58 points or -0.25%
- NASDAQ composite index -12.51 points or -0.23%
- Dow industrial average -32.66 points or -0.16%
- 2 year notes 1.189%, -2.6 basis points
- 5 -year notes 2.018% , -2 basis points
- 10 year note 2.534% -2.3 basis points
- 30 year bond 3.109% -3 basis points
- Spot gold is trading at 1131.54, -$0.74 or -0.07%
- Crude oil is trading at $52.53, -0.77 or -1.44%
- The EUR is the strongest currency today, while the NZD is the weakest.
A quiet day in the markets. The news was light. US existing home sales came in stronger than expected but had limited impact. The weekly inventory data showed a larger than increase in crude oil inventories but distillates and gas were down more than expectations. Oil prices moved lower with WTI down about -1.5% on the day.
The US stock market was down marginally but the big news was the fall in the volatility index (VIX). The VIX reached the lowest level since August 2015 as volatility wilts into the end of the year.
For most of the major currency pairs, the flows in the market seemed to dominate. The largest move came around the time of the London fix and close (1600-1700 GMT). The dollar was bid higher after moving lower for most of the NY session (until that time).
Today's activity might just be what we get for the rest of the year. Lower ranges. Flows sending the price higher at times and lower at other times -and at random times. There may be times when traders get an opportunity to lean against an extreme, but don't be surprised if a relatively modest move stalls the move. Booking pips is better than giving them up on a random order flow that hits the market.
USDJPY. The 100 hour MA at 117.68 is the bullish above/bearish below line in the new day. That level comes in at 117.68 currently. A move above should have trouble at 118.06 again. It was the high on Wednesday. ON the downside, the 116.75 is the 200 hour MA and trend line support as well.
EURUSD. Like the USDJPY, the 100 hour MA is in play. That comes in at 1.0420 currently - not far from the current level. The MA held support held pretty much the whole NY session. On a break below, the 1.0388 and 1.0366 will be eyed (low from Dec 15). The low for 2016 is at 1.03517. On the topside, the pair needs to get and stay above the 1.0462 level to change the bias to more bullish. That level was the low price from 2015. The 200 hour MA at the 1.0500 level (and moving lower) is another key resistance target should the bulls make a run to the upside.
GBPUSD: The 1.2350 to 1.2384 is an area going back to early November that was support. That upper extreme was tested today but failed (the high reached 1.23898). The afternoon trading took the price back below the 1.2350 but closed right near the 1.2350 level. Trading around the "area" suggests the "market" is unsure of the next directional run for the pair. To trade this pair, I think you have to focus on the price action and see if you can latch onto a pattern. For example. in the chart below, is the 100 and 200 bar MA telling us sellers?
USDCAD: Oil prices fell in trading on Wednesday helped by a surprise build in inventories. The Support at the 1.3334-57 stalled the fall at the lows. The rally tood the price toward the high for the week at 1.3433. A trend line on the daily chart (connecting the November highs) cuts across at 1.3443 level. That is a key level to get and stay above if this pair is going higher.
AUDUSD: Continues to hang near 6 plus month low levels. The 61.8% of the 2016 range comes in at 0.7211. Move below and the May low at 0.7144 becomes the next target. ON the topside, the 0.7284 to 0.7310 covers the last 3 swing lows from June (0.7284 and 0.7300) and November (0.7310). The high on Monday stalled near the 0.7310 level. The high on Wednesday stalled at 0.7279 - just ahead of the low of that area. Sellers more in control below that area.
NZDUSD: The 50% midpoint of the year for the NZDUSD is at 0.69156. The last 6 swing lows before the break lower in December, came in between 0.6951-65. The high on Wednesday stalled at 0.6947. The pair is trading below all those levels at the end of trading. Stay below and the price goes lower. Move above 0.6915 is step 1 for more bullish in the day. The next step would be to get above 0.6951-65. Until then, sellers are in control.
Below are the % changes of the major currencies vs each other on the day.
