Forex news for US trading on April 20, 2016
- BoC's Poloz: Recent eco data has been encouraging on balance
- US stocks end the day modestly higher
- German FM Schaeuble: Not sure Greece bailout will be successful
- EURUSD moves below 1.1300.
- USD/JPY breaks last week's high, what's next
- WTI hits the Gartman level
- Goldman Sachs - buy USD/JPY on BOJ easing
- Forex Video: Why traders are not talking when they should be talking
- Binary options straddle explained
- Russia shoots down chatter of May oil producer meeting
- Trump says he would be inclined not to reappoint Yellen
- US EIA weekly oil inventories +2080K vs +3000K expected
- US March existing home sales 5.33m vs 5.28m expected
- Latest Brexit poll shows larger lead for 'remain' side
- Iran hints it won't take part in June oil production freeze either
- BOE's McCafferty: Domestic price growth disappointing
- Euro going up despite ECB - SocGen
- Canada Feb wholesale sales -2.2% vs -0.4% expected
The dollar found a bid - mainly in the NY session. Squaring up or positioning ahead of ECB? Better existing home sales? Higher US debt yields (+4-6 basis points) may have helped fundamentally. Oil prices rose despite the Kuwaiti strike ending. The CRB index (measures a commodity basket) was up 1.97%. Typically, that should weaken the dollar but not today. Gold was up by $6.00 though.
Technically, pairs like the EURUSD and USDJPY broke through some key levels that led to increased buying of the greenback.
For the USDJPY today, the key technical clue came at the lows when the price held the 200 hour MA and 50% retracement of last week's range at the 108.78 level. The subsequent rally took the price up about 110 pips (the high reached 109.87). The 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart is helping to slow the rise. It comes in at 109.92 currently. This will be a key level to get above in the new trading day if the bullish momentum is to continue. The USDJPY has been contained over the last 10 trading days with 109.90 as the high. Key level in the new trading day.
When NY traders entered for the trading day, the EURUSD was in a 38 pips trading range. The day's highs were taken at 1.1379 - as was the high from yesterday at 1.1384. However, after extending just a few pips more to 1.13873, the selling began. By the time the selling subsiding, the price had fallen below the 200 and 100 hour MAs at 1.1335 and 1.1313 respectively (now a risk defining level for shorts) and the low reached 1.1289 - nearly 100 pips from the peak. That was a better trading range than the 38 pips that started the NY trading day.
The GBPUSD ended the day lower, but it was kept supported for most of the trading day, by a falling EURGBP (low extended to 0.7863 - the lowest level since since March 31 and below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.7894). The GBPUSD did extend lower over the last few hours - ending the day at the lows. The fall corresponded with a small correction in the EURGBP.
The USDCHF spiked higher in trading today. In fact the CHF was the weakest currency of the day. The pair was helped by a surging EURCHF which moved back above the 100 day MA at 1.09209. The EURCHF extended up to a high of 1.0988 and is closing near the highs. Meanwhile the USDCHF took out the months highs at 0.9687 and traded at the highest level since March 29th (closing at 0.9721). The pair looks like it has more room to roam going forward.
The NZDUSD was under pressure from the start and closed at the lows (at 0.6975). The pair approaches the double top from end of March at 0.6965 and the 100 hour MA at 0.69557. A break below each will be needed to keep the downward pressure on.
The USDCAD tried to rally after worse than expected wholesale sales. However traders were blindsided by higher oil prices despite the Kuwait oil workers strike ending. It is tough to rally off lows before oil prices start to turn around.
Wishing all a great new trading day!
