Forex news for North American trade on November 2, 2018:
- US October non-farm payrolls +250K vs +200K expected
- Canada October employment change +11.2k vs +15.0k expected
- US September trade balance -54.0B vs -53.6B expected
- Canada September merchandise trade balance -$0.42 billion vs +$0.20 billion expected
- ECB sources: No decision on TLTRO expected at December meeting, may not be needed
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 874 vs 875 prior
- Kudlow: Trump-Xi meeting is 'definite' but hasn't asked cabinet to draw up China deal plan
- Brexit: DUP leader says they're 'close' to a deal that will work for Northern Ireland
- Russia may help Iran get crude to market after sanctions - report
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: Specs sell more cable
- UK PM spokeswoman says has put forward proposals on Northern Ireland, negotiations to continue
Markets:
- S&P 500 down 17 points to 2723
- US 10-year yields up 9 bps to 3.22%
- Gold flat at $1232
- WTI crude down 80-cents to $62.89
- USD leads, JPY lags
Friday was supposed to be all about non-farm payrolls. It lifted the US dollar 15-30 pips across the board on strong jobs, participation and rising wages but the effect was overshadowed by a series of reports, denials and hints about a US-China trade deal.
It started with a Bloomberg report in European trade that said Trump asked cabinet to draft a possible trade deal with China. That helped sentiment and sent the commodity currencies higher, along with stocks. Not long after, the denials started and one hit shortly before non-farm payrolls.
From there it was a series of denials, some explicit other from unnamed sources. That sparked a u-turn in sentiment but late in the day Trump himself said there was progress in China. Accusations of trying to goose the stock market were rampant.
Aside from the China story, the big mover was bonds as US 10-year note yields made a big move. That helped to lift the US dollar and make it the top performer. But it's a fine line before it swaps the market with risk aversion.
Have a great weekend. Eamonn will be back when the market reopens.
