Forex news for US trading on March 2, 2016:
- ADP US Feb employment 214K vs 190K expected
- Billionaire Chesapeake co-founder who was indicted yesterday dies in car wreck today
- Ben Carson says no 'path forward' for his Presidential bid
- Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity expanded in most districts
- Fed's Williams: Any changes in interest-rate path may be modest
- More from the Fed's Williams: "We're not doing negative rates"
- Williams: Domestic demand is actually quite strong
- ECB's Coeure: Recovery in eurozone proceeding at sedate pace
- EIA weekly US oil storage +10,374K vs +3400K expected
- ISM New York 53.6 vs 54.6 prior
- Russia's Rosneft 2016 oil output seen falling 2% - RTRS sources
- Bank of England's Cunliff: We're not able to predict impact of a 'Brexit'
Markets:
- Gold up $8 to $1240
- WTI crude up 38-cents to $34.78
- US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 1.83%
- S&P 500 up 8 points to 1986
- AUD leads, CAD lags
Oil was a touch trade today. It sank to a session low of $33.55 on the inventory data and then ripped to a session high of $35.17 on the softening production numbers buried in the report. Then it faded back to $34.34 before a late bump to $34.78.
The main theme in FX in the later half of the day was US dollar weakness. EUR/USD bottomed at the London fix at 1.0825 and then steadily climbed up to 1.0865 to recover to unchanged on the day.
USD/JPY peaked immediately after the ADP report at 114.56, a two-week high. The sellers pounced and drove it down to 113.38 despite an improving mood in risk assets. It finished near the lows of the day.
Cable scored a rare big win, finishing up 125 pips. I highlighted a potential inverted head and shoulders bottomed yesterday and it paid off today with a handsome gain.
The bigger technical story was in AUD/USD as it broke above the Feb highs and the 200-day moving average. Baring a 40 pip drop in the next few minutes, it will close above those levels too. It kicked off with a great GDP report and continued with upbeat sentiment in stocks and commodities.
USD/CAD was choppy and didn't take advantage of oil even when it was higher. It started at 1.3440 the ran up close to 1.3500 then fell back to 1.3425, ending the day with a small gain but finishing the North American session with a loss.
