Forex news for US trading on November 19, 2015
- NY Fed Survey: Dealer saw Dec liftoff before Oct meeting
- Feds Lockhart: Fed policy is data dependent
- A snapshot of the major markets
- Extra. Extra. Lockhart sees first rate hike to be 25 basis points
- SNB's Maechler says Swiss France remains overvalued
- FOMC Lockhart: Path of rate increases to be gradual
- How do you know when the squeeze might be over?
- Deutsche Bank have been doing a lot of hard thinking
- Italy looks to shift more costly deadwood from its banks
- European stocks celebrate World Toilet Day
- Why we may only be at the start of the slump in global growth
- China's yuan SDR weighting may be lower than 14-16% estimates - Livesquawk
- October 2015 US leading index +0.6 vs +0.5% exp
- Flat starts for stocks following FOMC minutes boost
- The Fed's biggest inflation indicator just jumped nearly 2% y/y
- Fed has basically met its employment goal says Mester
- November 2015 US Philly Fed business outlook 1.9 vs -1.0 exp
- Canada wholesale trade sales -0.1% vs. +0.2% exp.
- US initial jobless claims 271k vs 271k exp
- The ECB will act in December - Here's why
- ECB minutes: Negative inflation risks have increased
The NY trading session saw the US dollar sell off "just because". Maybe it was that the Fed was not that hawkish (I am calling them "Dowkish" which is a cross between dovish and hawkish). Maybe it was because Gold moved higher by over 1%. Maybe it was because technically, some of the major currency pairs did some retracing through levels. Data today was about as expected. The weekly jobless claims came in spot on expectations. The Philly Fed Index was better than expectations at +1.9 vs -1.0 but it is still hanging around the 0.0 level. Leading index rose by +0.6% vs. +0.5% but I don't know of anyone who watches that series anymore.
For me, I blame it all the technical. The dollar sold off because technical were more dollar bearish. There I said it.
For the EURUSD, the pair moved above the 100 hour MA but could not initially get above the 200 hour MA. After a double bottom at the 1.0666 level (scary number), the pair pushed above the 200 hour MA at the 1.0715 area and raced up to the high for the day at the 1.0763. Trend line resistance (see post) stalled the rally (yes another technical reason) and the price retraced to the 200 hour MA (yes another technical reason). The day is ending between trend line and the 200 hour MA. The EURUSD can reverse back lower at any time with the ECB waiting for Dec 3 (well maybe), but with the 200 hour MA there to provide the bias clues, listen to it. We need to get below that MA level and stay below, before we can go lower.
GBPUSD traders did not like the UK retail sales data but the level did find support near the 100 hour MA and that led to a rally higher. The pair marched in the upward direction until int hit the 200 day MA at the 1.5339 level (the high reached 1.5335 - close enough to that key MA level. The pair corrected about 38.2% of the days range (at 1.52907) and the 50% is 1.5277. This area (between 1.5277-907) could hold support, or give way in the new day.
The USDJPY stepped lower as well today, falling below the 100 hour MA at 123.15, the 200 hour MA at 123.05 and upward sloping trend line at 122.98 currently. If the bearish correction continues, the 122.41 will be targeted. If the buyers take back control a move above the 123.15 will be eyed. Look or sellers on a move higher in the Asian Pacific session.
USDCHF played follow the dollar until hitting the 100 hour MA at the 1.0128 level. The price is closing near that level. SNBs Maechler was speaking today and he continued to trumpet the CHF is overvalued speech. The EURCHF - which reached the highest level since October 30th - was turned off by the jawboning and fell in the NY afternoon session. When the SNB speaks, traders don't listen.
The AUDUSD continued the surge higher that started this time yesterday. That move stalled right at the 100 day MA. The 100 day MA is at 0.72137 and the high came in at 0.7214...And traders say technical are hocus pocus black magic.
OK, the NZDUSD did NOT stop at the 100 day MA, but it tested, stalled briefly, then broke above. The correction has come back down to test the 100 day MA (at 0.6547). Watch that level in the new trading day.
That does it for me. Eamonn will get the new, and final day going for you. It is Friday. Friday's are the worst trading day of the week. So be careful out there. and
