Forex news for US trading on May 19, 2016:
- Fed's Dudley: June is definitely a live meeting
- Dudley: Fed's policy stance is data-dependent
- May 2016 US Philly Fed business outlook index -1.8 vs 3.5 exp
- US initial employment claims 278K vs 275k estimate
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index April +0.1% vs -0.2% exp
- Fed's Lacker: Markets took wrong signal from the Fed in March and April
- Goldman Sachs reiterates USD bottom
- BOE's Vlieghe: UK may need more stimulus if growth doesn't improve
- Greek debt exchange would make sense says the IMF
- Fed's Fischer: US economy needs faster potential growth
- Fed's Fischer ends Q&A with one word
- April US leading index +0.6% vs +0.4% prior
- South Africa holds rates unchanged at 7.00%
- Monetary policy should do whatever is necessary says ECB's Smets
- Kuroda: We will take action if FX or other factors risk price goal
- Kuroda: Easing could be in 3 dimensions
- ECB's Smets sees a need for rethink on monetary policy and fiscal coordination
- Canadian March wholesale trade sales -1.0% vs -0.5% expected
Markets:
- JPY leads, CAD lags
- Gold down $4 to $1254
- WTI crude down 12-cents to $48.07
- S&P 500 down 8 points to 2040
- US 10-year yields down 0.7 bps to 1.84%
The dollar bulls likely hoped for more today. The dollar's momentum peaked as US traders arrived and it was a slow retracement from there despite Dudley-the-dove making a pretty good case for a June hike.
EUR/USD fell as low as 1.1180 in Europe but rebounded to 1.2525 and split the difference at the close. That's a mediocre range overall and just a 20 pip fall despite what looked like it could be a breakdown.
USD/JPY was sapped by risk aversion early but even when stocks bounced the pair only mustered a 25-pip comeback. Maybe it's just a bit of regrouping after the big breakout/rally yesterday but it's concerning for the bulls.
Cable's non-Brexit momentum stalled as the pair consolidated the recent gains. A push to 1.4650 in Europe was a step too far for now, especially with Vlieghe talking about rate cuts. GBP/USD finished at 1.4604.
AUD/USD looked to be breaking down but recovered from a fall to 0.7176 in early US trading to finish unchanged at 0.7226.
USD/CAD was a big mover early as oil slumped hard. However offers around 1.3150 capped the rally and then oil reversed to finish unchanged. USD/CAD held most of the gain and finishes near 1.3100. Some top-tier Canadian data is due Friday.
Here are five charts that should have the dollar bulls worried
