Forex news for NY trading on March 18, 2016
- March 2016 US University of Michigan consumer sentiment flash 90.0 vs 92.2 exp
- February 2016 Canadian CPI 1.4% vs 1.5% exp y/y
- Canada January retail sales mm +2.1% vs +0.6% exp
- Baker Hughes oil rig count 387 vs 386 prior
- CFTC commitments of traders: GBP shorts pared before FOMC/BOE decisions
- US stocks end the day higher. Dow and S&P both above 2015 closing levels now.
- Bullard: Employment, Ex-oil inflation looking good
- Fed's Bullard: US Fed Policy extreme despite economic progress
- Italy must definitely overhaul banking sector in 2016 says PM Renzi
- European stocks could have been better and could have been worse this week
- Shots fired in Belgium as police undertake another terrorist raid
- Fed's Rosengren says tighter loan terms may reduce demand for credit
- Banks have ultimate responsibility for risks says Fed's Dudley
Markets:
- Forex technical analysis (video): Has the USDJPY bottomed this week?
- Forex technical analysis (VIDEO): A look at the GBPUSD going into the new trading week (March 21, 2016)
- Deutsche Bank says don't underestimate the BOJ
- Retails trump inflation in Canada, and keeps the pressure on USDCAD
- Ecuador calls for oil output cuts for all producers - BBG
The US broke a two day losing streak as the weakest major currency on the planet by becoming the strongest major currency instead. However, don't stand on the bar, nor shout from the highest mountain. The gains were minimal (see the changes vs. the major currencies in the chart below).
The day had little US economic catalyst. The University of Michigan Sentiment index for March was released and it came out weaker than expectations at 90.0 vs. 92.2 est. It was also lower than last months 91.7 reading. Both current conditions and expectations were weaker at 105.6 vs 106.8 est. (last was also at 106.8 for current conditions) and 80.0 vs 82.5 est. (last was 81.9 for expectations). The weaker readings did not have a lasting impact.
In Canada retail sales hit the reset button. The -2.1% decline for December was erased with a 2.1% gain this month. Ex auto came in better at 1.2% vs +0.4% estimate. CPI was about as expected but Producer prices fell by a greater than expected -1.5% vs -0.5% estimate.
The EURUSD could not take out yesterday's high in Asian-Pacific trading and that set a weaker/corrective tone for the day. The range was a fairly benign 81 pips. The NY session was about 1/2 that (43 pips).
The USDJPY started to recover in a slow and methodical way after it too failed to take out the extreme from yesterday. Like the EURUSD, traders in the NY session only had about a 43 pip trading range to play with.
Cable corrected lower in the London morning session but was able to make new week highs - and get back above 1.4500 (high extended to 1.4513) before some late day selling pushed the pair back below the key level. The pair is trading little changed on the day.
Oil reached a new corrective (and 2016) high price of $41.24 before falling back below the $40 level. The price is closing the week near the low levels for the day at $39.34. This helped to weaken the CAD and push the USDCAD back toward the highs.
The S&P and Dow both ended the week with the modest gains for the week AND above year end levels. The Nasdaq composite index is still negative on the year.
Wishing you all a happy and healthy weekend...
