Forex news for NY trading on October 17, 2016
- US major stock indices marginally lower
- USDJPY falls below 100 hour MA but the other targets remain a hurdle
- Swing states, swinging toward Clinton according to poll
- US crude oil futures settle at $49.94 per barrel
- Credit Suisse trade of the week: Sell AUDUSD
- S&P 500 falls to session low, USD/JPY pressured
- Cable recovers to unchanged, Morgan Stanley sees a bigger bounce
- A look at some of the favorite JPY crosses
- Canadian mortgage insurer to issue first 'red' warning for housing market
- Fed's Fischer Q&A: We're very close to inflation and employment targets
- Fed's Fischer: 'Not that simple' for FOMC to influence short and long-term rates
- Monday motivation: Be like Mike
- FTSE wins the losers race at the start of the week
- UK's Fox agrees bilateral trade policy dialogue with New Zealand
- BOE's Broadbent: Long-run fall in interest rates not due to BOE policy
- Sell and cable rallies and target at least 1.20 - Nomura
- Oil slips below $50 on talk of more oil from Iran
- Last week the ECB bought €18.078bn vs €18.072 prior in latest QE count
- September 2016 US industrial production 0.1% vs 0.1% exp m/m
- Fed's Rosengren wants to hike before it's too late
- October 2016 US Empire State manufacturing index -6.80 vs 1.00 exp
- The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day
Fundamentally, the US data today was mostly weaker than expectations, but admittedly the data was focused on good producing data and that is not an area of growth in the US at the moment. Empire Manufacturing came in at -6.8 vs 1.0 expectations. Industrial Producation came in as expected at 0.1% but Capacity Utilization was lower than estimate at 75.4 vs 75.6%.
From the Fed speakers today, Feds Rosengren and Fischer both looked as if they were ready to go ahead with a hike sooner rather than later (probably December). However, the dollar was not largely impressed. In fact, the dollar is ending the day as athe 2nd weakest currency, only surpassed by the GBP.
Speaking of the GBP, the GBPUSD was maintaining lower levels as London traders looked to exit for the day. However, a report came out that a bilateral trade policy dialogue with New Zealand was underway. A soft Brexit headline. OK it was with New Zealand but it was a start. Overall, it was worth about 48 pips from the low to the high. In a day where the GBPUSD range is 66 pips, that was big. The not so bullish development is the price stalled right at the 100 hour MA (high reached 1.2201 while the 100 hour MA was at 1.2202). The pair is little changed on the day but with the 100 hour MA holding, that MA gained in importance into the new trading day and going forward. Be aware
The EURUSD rallied modestly in trading today (+0.27%), but the NA session barely had a 20 pip trading range. The sideways/up day, however, allowed the 100 hour MA to inch lower toward the current price. That MA comes in at 1.10166 and could come in play if there is a continuation higher in the new trading day.
The USDJPY was another pair where the dollar got weaker. This pair traded between intraday resistance at 104.15 and support at the 100 hour MA at 103.917. An afternoon sell off, took the price below that 100 hour MA line at 103.917 swinging the pair more bearish. However, there is more work to be done in the new trading day if the pair is to go lower. The 200 hour MA at 103.738 and trend line connecting October 10 and Oct 13 lows (on hourly chart at 103.66 are targets to get to and through.
In other pairs:
- The USDCAD found sellers against the 200 day MA at 1.31823. Stay below is more bearish for the pair and should look to test the 100 day MA next at 1.30229
- The AUDUSD fell in Asia-Pacific session but recovered all those losses -and a little more - in London and North American trading. A trend line is being tested at the close at the 0.7626 level. If the new day is able to get above and stay above their may be more upside. Credit Suisse said selling was the trade of the week. Is this the peak to sell against? or do you stay away for now?
- The NZDUSD based against the 100 hour MA early in the new session, and traded above the 200 hour MA in the London morning session (at 0.71108). That is risk for the longs who like the upside now. At the highs today, the pair tested the 38.2% of the move down from Oct 4 high at 0.71394. A break above in the new day will next target the 100 day MA and the 50% of the same move lower at 0.7172 area.
- For a look at some JPY crosses technically, CLICK HERE
In other markets:
- S&P index -0.3%
- NASDAQ index -0.27%
- Dow industrial average -0.29%
- German DAX -0.73%, Euro Stoxx index down -0.34%, UK FTSE down -0.94%
- 10 year yield 1.766%, -3 basis points
- German 10 year yield 0.055% unchanged; UK 10 year 1.123% +2.6 basis points
- Crude oil futures -0.87%
- Spot gold +0.28%
Below is a look at the major currency pairs and the % changes of each vs. each other. The NZD was the strongest (NZDGBP and NZDUSD leading the way). The weakest was the GBP with most of the declines coming against the NZD.
