Forex news for US trading on May 17, 2016
- US stocks take it on the chin...
- Oil touches above Nov high ahead of API inventory data
- Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD is another one of those pairs that is non trending
- Fed heavyweights will speak Thursday
- Kaplan: I'll advocate for rate hike in upcoming meetings
- Sell the AUD bounce - Morgan Stanley
- US stocks roll over; Fed feared
- Fed struggles to convince markets that June is a live meeting, FOMC minutes could help
- Fed's Kaplan: There is still oversupply globally of 1 million barrels a day
- Why do the Fed members continue to over promise and under deliver?
- Goldman Sachs GDP tracking unchanged at 2.6% for Q2
- Fires halt Canadian dollar rally
- Fed could act in June and all meetings are live says Lockhart
- Low interest rates may eventually take their toll says ECB's Nouy
- Cheers to tears in European stocks
- Atlanta GDPNow shows GDP at 2.5% vs 2.8% prior
- Fed's Williams: Raising rates 2 or 3 times this year makes sense - Livesquawk
- There's good news and bad news for Italy
- The Global Dairy trade auction rises by 2.6%
- US industrial production for April 0.7% vs. 0.3% estimate
- Forex Education Trading: Attacking Currency Non-Trends
- Higher inflation and better housing data is no comfort to the dollar
- March 2016 Canadian manufacturing sales -0.9% vs -1.8% exp m/m
- US housing starts pace for April 1172K vs.1125K est
- April 2016 US CPI inflation 1.1% vs 1.1% exp y/y
- IMF wants Eurozone debt relief for Greece until 2040 - WSJ
Granted the Fed members speaking today (Williams, Kaplan, Lockhart) are non voting members. Nevertheless, each one said that the June meeting was live for the Fed. That comes before the Brexit vote, but they are not bothered. Of course we have heard the story before, and they tend to have courage of 1000 matadors (Williams has up to 7 tightenings in the next year and 7 months) when they get in front of a crowd. The end of 2016 is a long way away and end of 2017? The Fed can't project the next quarter, how can they "see" 2017 or see the impact of Brexit? Pleasssssseeeee! Feds Dudley and Fischer will speak on Thursday. Their comments are probably more important.
Other fundamental news today...CPI rose by 0.4% vs 0.3%. The YoY ex food and energy dipped to 2.1% from 2.2% last month. Housing starts were higher than expected and Industrial production and Capacity utilization was also stronger (+0.7% vs a revised -0.9% last month and 75.4% vs 74.9% last month). Overall, better than expected data.
The AUDUSD was the strongest currency today. It rose against all the major currency pairs. The CHF was the weakest. The USD was right in the middle - rising modestly against the EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD and falling against the GBP, NZD and the AUD.
A lot of the currency pairs vs. the USD are non-trending. The EURUSD is off to one of it's patented slow starts to the week. The range today - 50 pips - is the range for the week. This deja vu all over again. At the midpoint of last week, the range was 61 pips. It ended at 163 pips. We will see how this week pans out but be on the lookout for an extension. The pair rallied up toward the 100 hour MA (currently at 1.13486) but ran out of steam (the high reached 1.1347). On a test in the new trading day (the current is at 1.1313), look for sellers. More anxious sellers would come in at 1.1328.
USDJPY.... UP and then DOWN. Like the EURUSD it is non trending but it did try to extend above resistance at 109.36-46. The high reached 109.647 but back down it came after CPI failed to break any higher. Support was found against the 100 hour MA in the NY session (at 108.91 currently. The pair is trading at 109.13 as NY closes for the day.
The GBPUSD rallied strongly in the Asian Pacific session on Poll showing "No" was winning. The CPI data out of the UK did not help the bullish cause. The pair did find support against the 200 and 100 hour MAs which come in at 1.4423-33. The low in the NY session was at 1.4430.
USDCAD was another pair that chopped up and down in trading today. The first move was lower, then higher into the London morning, then lower again in the NA session. Watch the 100 hour MA at 1.2882 for close support.
IN New zealand the PPI data for the quarter will be released. This pair is also none trending up and down since May 9th. 0.6844-47 is topside resistance. The 0.6781 is close support. other support comes in a 0.6743-45 and the 100 day MA at 0.6720.
Crude oil futures are ending the day at 48.31/+1.66%. Bond yield were up about 4 basis points in the front end on the hawkish Fed comments and unchanged to up 1 BP further out. Stocks in the US ended down on the day with the Nasdaq down -1.25% and the S&P down -0.94%.
Have a GREAT Wednesday whereever you are in the world. Good fortune with your trading.
