Forex news for trading for August 16, 2016
- US stocks recover from earlier losses. Ends the day higher.
- USD/JPY threatens first close below 100.00 since 2013
- GBPUSD moves to back down on the day
- Fed's Bullard would prefer signs of higher GDP before moving
- US dollar slumps after FOMC Minutes
- Six key passages in the FOMC Minutes
- FOMC Minutes: Some voters saw hike warranted soon
- Note the trading pattern on the FOMC Minutes
- Bullard Q&A: The St Louis Fed is skeptical of the Phillips Curve
- FOMC Minutes coming up. Here are the highlights of the statement
- Fed's Bullard sees 1 rate hike over the next 2 year
- Forex Technical Analysis: One more time for the GBPUSD
- Forex technical analysis: USDJPY looks to complete the day's lap
- Is the market disregarding a Donald Trump win?
- EURJPY resumes fall after stall...
- European stocks get the hump on hump day
- Trump to focus on substance and policy in future speeches
- US EIA weekly oil inventories -2508k vs 950k exp
- S&P peels further away from 2200
- Forex technical analysis: USDJPY moving lower
- Saudi's could raise oil production to new record levels - Livesquawk
- A look at oil ahead of the US inventory data
- Spanish PM Rajoy edges closer to forming a government
- The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day
The NY session started te day with the US dollar as the strongest currency. After the FOMC minutes showed some member close to raising but most saying they wanted a
prudent approach, those gains started to erode (see details HERE). By the end of the trading day, the greenback stayed positive against the AUD and the NZD mostly (though off the highs) but moved back to plus or minus a small amount vs the other major currencies (EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY and CAD). The biggest change from the prior day was less than 10 pips vs those five currencies. Pretty much unchanged levels. The currency market was not the only one to reverse course. Stocks also moved from negative to positive and US bond yields turned from positive to negative.
The AUD was the weakest currency on the day and down against the USD. However, it did move off the lows after falling to trend line support (See chart above) at the 0.7611 level currently. The sharp corrective move higher after the FOMC, took the price right up to the 200 and 100 hour MAs (green and blue lines) at the 0.76716-0.76749 levels respectively. The pair is closing between those two extremes. I show these levels as they will define bullish and bearish bias AFTER the employment report that will be released at 9:30 PM ET/0130 GMT) in the new trading day. A move above the MAs above, and I would expect further upside momentum, while a move below 0.7622 should solicit a more bearish bias (the price has to stay below). The expectations are for 10K employment change (vs 7.9K last month) and unemployment rate of 5.8% (vs 5.8% last month).
The GBPUSD chopped around with lower highs but with support holding against the 200 hour MA on 4 or so separate tests (at 1.2991 currently). The pair dipped below on the FOMC headlines, only to bounce back higher, and even took out the high for the day. However, topside resistance against 1.3094-97 slowed the rally (the high could only extend to 1.3084), and the price wandered back down toward the middle of the two technical extremes. Like in Australia, a key economic release will be out with July Retail Sales expected to show a +0.1% gain. Why so impoortant? it is one of the first looks at spending post Brexit. With the price at 1.3000 area, it could decide if we head toward 1.2500 over time on a weak number, or up to 1.3500 on a strong number.
The USDJPy''s high for thday extended tot the 100 hour MA during the late Asia Pacific session. These gains were fully eroded over the course of the rest of the day (about 90 pips from the highs). The pair closed for the 2nd consecutive week below the low close for the year at 100.487. Is a trend starting? Will a close back below 100.00 be next? Trade date for Japan will be released in the new trading day.
Speaking of two successive trading days..the EURUSD closed above the 100 day MA (at 1.1226) for the 2nd consecutive trading day. However, the high from yesterday at 1.1321 could not be broken today (the high extended to 1.1315). With the pair trading below the 100 day MA since the Brexit selloff day on June 24, I will give the bulls the benefit of the doubt now that they have two closes above. A move toward the 1.1400 to 1.1450 area can not be ruled out IF the price can remain above that key MA level.
The USDCAD remains more bearish (it has closed 3 straight days below the 100 day MA at 1.2933). Oil was up again helping the pair keep a lid on a rally in the London morning session. On the day, the pair was little changed from yesterday's close however.
Below is a snap shot of the strongest and weakest currencies on the day. The EUR ends up the strongest (although the gain is marginal), the AUD and NZD are the weakest.
