Forex news for NA trading on July 16, 2020
- Major indices break winning streaks
- Gold back below $1800
- Fed's Williams: Sees continued economic recovery in 2nd half
- There is a rumor that Texas will shutdown tomorrow
- Canada's Trudeau: Canada, provinces agree on C$19 billion Covid plan
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $40.75
- More from Fed's Evans: no reason to shift away from accommodative policy
- California case count 8,544 vs. 11,126 yesterday
- Fed's Evans: Sees 9% – 9.5% unemployment at the end of the year
- US CDC daily case count rises by 67,404 vs 60,971
- Atlanta Fed Bostic: I am not concerned about deflation (or inflation for that matter)
- US considering ban on travel to US by all Chinese Communist Party members
- European shares end the session with mixed results
- Arizona virus cases rise 2.5% vs. 7 day average of 2.8%
- Fed's Williams: Fed liquidity programs have helped ease credit market strains
- Florida coronavirus cases 13,837 vs. 10,076 yesterday
- Senior EU official: We are not there yet on agreement on a next EU budget and recovery
- US business inventories for May -2.3% vs. -2.3% estimate
- NAHB housing market index for July 72 vs. 61 estimate
- Lagarde Q&A: We have 'slowed down a little bit' the pace of PEPP purchases
- Lagarde opening statement: Data signal resumption of economic activity
- Philadelphia Fed business outlook for July 24.1 vs. 20.0 estimate
- US initial jobless claims 1300K vs 1250K estimate
- US June advance retail sales +7.5% vs +5.0% expected
- The EUR is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day
In other markets:
- spot gold $-14.55 or -0.82% at $1795.50
- WTI crude oil futures $-0.50 or -1.21% at $40.70
In the US stock market today the major indices moved to the downside. The NASDAQ index continue to underperform. It fell -0.73%. the S&P index fell -0.34%, while the Dow industrial average fell -0.50%. European shares were also mostly lower with the exception of the Italian FTSE MIB and the Portuguese PSI 20.
After the close Netflix reported much higher than expected subscriber base for the 2nd quarter but third-quarter subscriber base was much less than expected at 2.5m vs. 5.1m estimate. Earnings-per-share will also lessen expectations. That has pushed down the stock in after hours trading and also drag down other tech names in the process.
In the US debt market, yields move lower on concerns about the economy.
Those concerns came despite retail sales today which rose by a greater than expected 7.5% vs. 5% estimate. The ex auto data was also better at 7.3% vs. 5%. Ex auto and gas also was better-than-expected as was the control group. Other data including the Philadelphia Fed business outlook, and NAHB housing market data (both for July) showed improvement and better-than-expected data. So why the concerns?
No one really knows how the winds may blow tomorrow, next week, a month from now. Perhaps, the fear is not in the larger firms, but in the small businesses where threats of a re-shutdown not government sponsored, but privately/individually sponsored from concerns about "crowds" (although there was rumor that Texas might reshut down which was later denied by the governor today).
The winds of change could be easily solved by doing little things like wearing masks. If that trend becomes more and more accepted - even to the point that is becomes more of a habit not just now, but going forward when the curve flattens - then the fear and the case count can go back down. For now with the case count at record levels, there still is some fear that deaths are around the corner even if they are not really running away just yet.
In the forex today, the USD moved higher and was the strongest of the major currencies. The weakest was the NZD and AUD which followed a "risk off" theme. The USD gained 0.58% vs the NZD, 0.53% vs the AUD and 0.5% vs the CAD. The gains vs the other major pairs were more modest.
