Forex trading news for New York on December 16, 2016.
- US stocked end day lower. The S&P and Nasdaq near unchanged on the week. Dow up.
- CFTC commitment of traders: EUR short trimmed. JPY shorts increased in the current week
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $51.90 per barrel
- More Lacker: Expects some fiscal stimulus.
- Feds Bullard: Revising view. Now sees additional 2017 hike
- ECB Praet: QE effects on inflation disappointing up to now
- Fed's Lacker: Lots of uncertainty about future Trump economic policy
- Baker Hughes total rig count up 13 in the current week
- Put away the Dow 20K t-shirts, the party horns, balloons and confetti..
- Book it. The European stocks close the day and week higher
- US dollar pulled down after China seizes US underwater drone
- S&P affirms Germany rating; Outlook stable
- The NY Fed GDP forecast falls to 1.8% from 2.7%
- The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate rises to 2.6% from 2.4% prior
- November 2016 US housing starts 1.090m vs 1.230m exp
- The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day
In other markets today:
- S&P index -3.96 points or -0.18%
- NASDAQ composite index -19.69 points or 0.36%
- Dow industrial average -8.83 points or -0.04%
- 2 year notes 1.256% -1.7 bp
- 5 -year notes 2.0688%, -2 basis points
- 10 year note 2.593%, Unchanged
- 30 year bond 3.18% +1.7 basis points
- Spot gold $1134 +$5.30 or +0.47%
- Crude oil futures $51.95, +$1.05 or 2.06%
- The GBP was the strongest. The NZD was down sharply. The USD was mixed today falling modestly against the EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, and rising against the CAD, AUD and NZD
The NZD was the weakest currency of the day today as it tumbled against all the major currency pairs. Against the USD, the pair fell by 1.17% on the day. For the week that currency pair fell by 2.47% overall. It was the weakest against the dollar in a week that saw the USD rise against all the majors (see chart below).
For the NZDUSD this week, the pair saw the ttechnical picture deteriorate with the price moving below the 100 day moving average at 0.7197, the 200 day moving average of 0.7065 and today below a trend line connecting lows on the daily chart from May and November. THat trend line cuts across at 0.7004 level. The pair stalled the fall near the 50% of the move up from the 2016 low (in January). That level comes in at 0.6915. The low today reached 0.6930.
The AUDUSD was also under pressure in trading today (and the week). Like the NZDUSD, the fall was helped today but a fall below a technical support level. For the AUDUSD, it fell below both the 50% retracement and a trend line connecting lows from May and November at the 0.7330-33 area. The break did not stall until the 0.7266 level today. For the week, the AUDUSD fell -2.04%.
The EURUSD recovered a bit in in trading today - breaking a two day tumble that saw the pair moved from a high of 1.0669 to a low of 1.0365 in trading yesterday (-304 pips). The pair's recovery in trading from the low took the pair to a high 1.0473. We are settling today at 1.0446. What is key in trading this week, is the EURUSD fell below the 1.0517-20 area. That was the triple bottom of lows from April 2015, December 2015 and November 2016. The price also fell below the December 2016 low at 1.0503 AND finally, the March 2015 low at 1.0462 was also broken. Although today, the price moved back above the 1.0462 level, the rebound was rejected. Next week, traders will be watching these key resistance levels on any correction. Failure to get above them and the sellers are still firmly in control.
The USDJPY saw the pair rally 2.25% on the week. Today, however, the USDJPY was lower by -0.19% as traders reacted to reports of China seizing an unmanned underwater drone (HMMM). The action took place around the London fixing time which may have impacted the price as well. The fall took the price from 118.40 to a day low at 117.49. The price recovered into the close for the week at 117.863. For the week, the pair tested a stalled in the 118.06-51 area. That area was home to a lot of swing lows from Feb 2105 to October 2015. In Feb 2016, the price fell below that area for the final time and had not returned until this weeks surge. It remains a key upside resistance level for the pair.
The GBPUSD for the 2nd week in a row tried to move to the 100 day MA (it is at 1.27445) line but fell short. The pair on the daily chart came down to test a trend line connecting the October 25th and November 21 lows on Wednesday. On FOMC Thursday, the trend line was broken at 1.2530. The low extended to 1.2375 on Thursday, but rebounded to close at 1.2484. For the week, the dollar rose by 0.72% against the GBP.
The USDCAD this week fell into Wednesday after non-OPEC production cuts pushed oil higher. However, after the pair stalled right against the 200 day MA (at 1.3072 - the low reached 1.3078) the sellers turned to buyers with the FOMC decision and dollar buying helping. Overall the dollar was higher against the loonie by 1.21%. Today the pair was little changed (+0.10%). The trading bias is move positive being above the 100 day MA at 1.3196 in addition to the 200 day MA, but a move back below the 1.3246 level in trading next week, would be a concern for longs.
Below are the % changes of the major currencies vs each other on the day.
Wishing you all a great weekend. Thank you for your support this week.
