Forex news for US trading on June 15, 2016
FOMC decision
- Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged - highlights of June 15, 2016 statement
- What changed in the FOMC dot plot and economic projections
- The FOMC Statement for June 2016
- Yellen Q&A: Brexit was certainly a factor in FOMC decision
- Yellen statement: Recent economic indicators have been mixed
Data
- US May PPI +0.4% m/m vs +0.3% m/m expected
- June 2016 US Empire State manufacturing index 6.01 vs -4.00 exp
- May 2016 US industrial production -0.4% vs -0.2% exp
- May 2016 Canadian existing home sales -2.8% vs 3.1% prior
- April 2016 Canadian manufacturing sales 1.0% vs 0.6% exp m/m
- EIA weekly US oil inventories -933K vs -2325K expected
News
- BOJ expected to punt on easing once again - Nikkei survey
- North Dakota oil regulator says April production drop was largest monthly drop in history
- There are signs that the global economy is healing says BOC's Poloz
- ECB's Constancio says low rates are a worldwide phenomenon
- New Zealand Fonterra dairy auction price index unchanged
- ECB's Weidmann FX must not become an active policy instrument
Markets
- Gold up $8 to $1293
- WTI crude down $1.00 to $47.49
- S&P 500 down 4 points to 2071 in late slump
- US 10-year yield down 3.6 bps to 1.58%
- AUD leads, CAD lags
The market wasn't sure what to do with the FOMC decision. The kneejerk was that it was dovish and the US dollar dropped to the lows of the day, falling around 50 pips across the board.
Before the decision, the market had sniffed out a dovish statement and the dollar was under pressure against the euro and yen.
For USD/JPY it was at 105.93 before the decision and then dropped to 105.44 at the lows afterwards. That narrowly took out the May low, but only for a minute or two.
Cable was less of a volatile trade than it has been but still choppy within a 1.4150 to 1.4200 range in US trading. It had bounced in Europe and finishes the day up nearly 100 pips. The general consensus is that it's a dead-cat bounce but that's almost always what they say at the bottom
USD/CAD had a mind of its own and there was a clear bid underpinning the pair. Liquidity appeared to disappear or some heavy stops were run in a quick jump to 1.2940 from 1.2915 at the tail end of 100 pip rally. The Fed decision kicked it back down to 1.2860 but bids appeared again later and it climbed to 1.2862.
The Australian dollar was bid ahead of the Fed and spiked to a session high of 0.7447 but it faded back to 0.7407 late as the post-Fed dollar selling reversed.
One market that didn't get much attention today was oil. The weekly inventory data was bullish and crude jumped 80-cents then held there for a few hours before it dropped $1 late in the day to a low of $47.28.
