Forex news for US trading for August 15, 2016
- All major stock indices close at record levels
- Deutsche Bank Trade Idea: Long NZDUSD from 0.7200
- Crude oil futures settled the day at $45.74/BBL
- Daily Charts ONLY: The USDJPY's broad view shows support
- Daily Charts ONLY: The EURUSD confined near the middle for the trading range
- Canada FM Morneau: Monitoring housing market
- Fed's Williams. Consider railing or replacing 2% price goal
- Top 5 events/releases for the week
- AUDUSD moves above the 100 hour MA
- European stocks end the day mostly higher
- AUDUSD extends to session highs
- USDCAD developing some value below the 100 day MA
- Citi trade of the week. Sell EURUSD.
- The NAHB housing market index for August 60 vs 60 est.
- Forex technical analysis: EURUSD extends the narrow trading range
- Weekly public sector asset purchases +11.364B vs +12.414B last week
- US equities open higher. S&P and Nasdaq trade at record high levels
- Forex technical analysis: GBPJPY lower but tests trend line support
- Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD trading at new session lows
- July 2016 Canadian existing home sales -1.3% vs -0.9% prior m/m
- August 2016 US Empire State manufacturing -4.2 vs 2.5 exp
- The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day
The GBP was the weakest currency today as the market prepares for some post Brexit data this week. All pairs with GBP were lower on the day but there was a stall/correction in the NY session. GBPJPY hit the 130.00 level and stalled. The EURGBP also stalled near a key big figure. It stopped at 0.8702 and consolidated/corrected.
Traders in the NY session were presented with a EURUSD range of 32 pips at the start of the session. By the end that range was extended to about 50 pips by the end of the trading day (the high reached 1.1203 - I guess big figures played a role in trading today). The pair quickly shed about 20 pips after 1.12000 started to find seller but stalled near 1.1180. For the last three hours, the pair traded with a low of 1.1180 and a high of 1.1186 (yes 6 pips). In the new trading day, watch for a move above 1.1190. On the downside, keep an eye out at 1.1168. That is the 50% midpoint of the month's trading range.
The USDJPY closed the day little changed against the USD (just a few pips from Friday's close) . The NY session started with the pair on the defensive moving to the downside. However, as the low approached the low from Friday (at 100.818), the buyers started to nibble away (the low reached 100.86 today). The JPY crosses - especially the GBPJPY - were also initially heading lower. However, that selling in that pair also stalled. So the USDJPY started to zig-zag in 15-25 pips steps with more of an upward bias until it reached the closing level from Friday at 101.26. That is where the price stalled. If this pair is to go higher it needs to get and stay above the 100 and 200 hour MA as step 1. Last week a lot of time was spent above the MAs but momentum could not be sustained. Overall 100.47-71 represent a key area to stay above if there is to be any upside potential. Keep that area in mind going forward.
Oil prices were up over 2.5% on the day and that helped to keep the sellers in control in the USDCAD. THe pair moved below the 100 day MA at the 1.2937 around mid day and kept below the MA for the rest of the day. That is the bearish news. The bullish news is although oil continued to rally into the close, the CAD stopped getting stronger. More buyers showed up and helped to support the pair into the close. The USDCAD remains below the 100 day MA at 1.2937 but with the pair trading at 1.2928 at the day close, the pair is not far from reversing the bias back to bullish (on a move above the MA line).
CItibank likes the NZDUSD this week buying at 0.7200 with a stop at 0.7000 and TP at 0.7500. The problem with that view technically, is the price is below the 100 hour MA at the 0.72116 and also below the 100 hour MA at 0.7213 (well it actually traded above and below those levels with no momentum either way and closed below the area). I would like it - like Citi - if the price can work it's way above 0.7213 (and stay above) in the new trading day.
