Forex news for NY trading on November 13, 2019
- New Zealand home sales fall 4% year on year: REINZ
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $57.12
- San Francisco Fed Pres. Daly: Policy rate is appropriate for economy
- RBNZ Orr: It was without that a tough decision told rates
- US monthly budget statement shows a deficit of $-134.5 billion in October
- US, China trade talks hit snag over agricultural purchases
- Fed's Kashkari: Sees continue growth but there are risks on horizon
- Oh... the European major indices close in the red today
- Highlights from Fed Powell. Monetary policy is likely to remain appropriate
- More from Fed's Powell: Monetary policy is in a good place
- EIA cuts forecast for 2019 world oil demand by 90,000 barrels per day
- Fed Powell highlights from his testimony
- The full prepared text from Fed Powell's testimony to the Joint Economic Council
- Fed Powell: Policy appropriate as long as the economy stays on track
- OPEC Barkindo: Could see sharp supply fall in 2020 from US shale output
- US CPI for the month of October 0.4% versus 0.3% estimate
- The NZD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest at NA traders enter
In other markets:
- Spot gold is up $7.23 or 0.50% at $1463.57
- WTI crude oil futures are up $0.46 or 0.81% at $57.26.
In the US stock market today, the Dow and S&P closed at all-time record highs. The Dow was supported by Disney which rose over 7% on the back of better-than-expected subscriptions for its new Disney+ streaming service (10M on the first day). The Nasdaq index could not sustain all-time record high levels and closed in the red. Headline news that the US/China trade deal had a snag as a result of agricultural purchases took the steam out of that index (and the S&P too)
Below is a look at the % high, low and close for the major North American and European stock indices.
In the US debt market today, yields opened lower on risk off flows and continued lower in the US session. However, there was a little up blip higher toward the end of the trading day.
Fundamentally, the US finally had some economic data in the form of CPI today (Monday and Tuesday was void of any economic releases). The CPI MoM headline number showed a greater than expected 0.4% gain versus 0.3% estimate. The YoY was also a little higher at 1.8% vs 1.7% estimate. However, the ex food and energy YoY was a touch weaker at 2.3% vs 2.4% estimate (last month 2.4% as well). The data sent the USD up briefly but the gains were not sustained.
The market was next focused on the testimony by Fed chair Powell in front of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.. The chairs comments were congruent with his colleagues at the Fed. Some major themes:
- Monetary policy is appropriate and will likely stay that way
- Economic outlook favorable.
- Monetary policy and the economy are in a good place.
- Risks are global slowdown and trade
- Fiscal policy is unsustainable
- We don't know where maximum employment is. The Fed needs to let the data speak and the data is not sending any signals that labor market is so hot or that inflation is moving up.
The market is not expecting any change of the Fed's December meeting and the expectations for January are showing a relatively low 24% chance for a cut.
In the forex market today, the big moves were in the NZD pairs. The catalyst was the surprise no change decision by the RBNZ near the start of the day. That sent the NZDUSD sharply higher (by 1.25% on the day). The other NZD pairs rose by 0.99% or more. The biggest mover was the 1.37% gain in the NZDCAD (up 1.37%).
What are the technicals showing for some of the major currency pairs.
- The NZDUSD moved above the 200 hour MA and 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart at 0.6377-81. The corrective low in the NZDUSD stalled at 0.6781. So that level remains a key risk defining level for the pair going forward. Stay above is more bullish. On the topside, the 100 day MA is at 0.6436. Get above that - and stay above - would increase the bullish bias. The pair trades between the support and resistance at 0.6410.
- The EURUSD has swing level support, trend line support and the 61.8% at 1.0990 to 1.1000. The low today reached 1.09948. The price trades at 1.1004. The trade is simple. Stay above the 1.0990 level keeps the buyers in play. Move below and the selling should intensify.
- The GBPUSD stalled twice at 1.28216 today. That was the swing high from Friday. The ceiling is now the floor. Stay above keeps the dip buyers happy. On the topside, the 200 hour MA stalled the rally on Tuesday. A move above should solcit more buying in the new day. The 200 hour MA comes in at 1.2858 currently and moving lower.
.
