Forex news for US trading on January 13, 2017
- December 2016 US retail sales 0.6% vs 0.7% exp m/m
- US business inventories for November +0.7% vs +0.6% estimate
- January 2017 Michigan consumer sentiment flash 98.1 vs 98.5 exp
- DBRS downgrades Italy to BBB (high) from A (low)
- NY Fed Q1 GDP estimate hiked to 2.1%
- Some highlights from the Fed's Harker
- US December PPI +0.3% vs +0.3% m/m expected
- December 2016 US retail sales 0.6% vs 0.7% exp m/m
Markets:
- Oil down 45 cents to $52.56
- Gold up $3 to $1198
- S&P 500 up 4 points to 2274
- US 10 year yields up 3 bps to 2.39%
- NZD leads, USD lags
Friday the 13th was probably the least-scary trading day of the year so far. There were some good moves, especially in the dollar but no signs of panic.
After a week of focusing on politics and bonds, the market had some fundamental data to focus on today. The problem was that the market move didn't follow the numbers.
December retail sales missed estimates with the control group especially weak. But whether it was flows or deeper fears in the market because of retailer warnings, the US dollar rallied off the news. USD/JPY shot to 114.80 from 114.00 and the continued as high as 115.40. It got a second wind from U Mich consumer sentiment, which was also a tad soft.
The ranges were tighter elsewhere but still lively. EUR/USD peaked at 1.0670 early in US trading as it ran into resistance at yesterday's high. It tracked down in the USD rally to 1.0600 and took out a few stops below the figure before starting a slow climb to 1.0640 later.
Cable followed the same pattern as it started US trading at the daily high and was at the daily low of 1.2130 in a few hours in a 100 pip swing. It managed to catch a bid into the London fix and that helped the pound to a rare gain on the day, albeit a small one. May's speech Tuesday and the Supreme Court decision on the Brexit vote coming before Parliament will be big news in the week ahead.
USD/CAD was much more subdued on Friday than earlier in the week and that reflected the lack of news and quieter trading in oil. The range was 1.3104 to 1.3162 but there were several looks at each side.
The Australian dollar has been impressive so far in 2017 and that continued Friday as it rallied 50 pips off the lows to finish higher for the 8th time in 10 trading days this year. Keep a close eye on the chart as it's facing some stiff near-term resistance.
Have a great weekend.
