Forex news for US trading on April 13, 2016:
- US stock indices have a nice day higher
- Australian employment to be released in the new trading day
- WTI crude oil futures settlement $41.76 per barrel
- Feds Beige Book: Prices increased modestly in majority of districts
- Forex technical analysis: USDCHF trades at session highs.
- DB macro strategist sees USDCAD in longer term on policy differential
- ECB Nowotny: Expects slow improvement in economic dynamics
- BOC Poloz: All ingredients are present for US to get back to full capacity
- More BOC Poloz headlines from press conference...
- Atlanta GDP estimate rises to +0.3% from +0.1%
- Bank of Canada press conference. Poloz: Best to look through short term economic strength
- Forex technical analysis: What levels are in play for the GBPUSD?
- S&P sees real GDP up 2.3% in 2016 (vs 2.7% in December)
- Weekly US EIA oil inventories +6634K vs +1000K expected
- Full text of the Bank of Canada rate decision
- US Business Inventories -0.1% vs. -0.1% estimate
- Bank of Canada holds rates at 0.50%, as expected
- Currency concerns from the Bank of Canada are loonie
- There's no blaming the weather this year
- IMF's Vinals: Negative rates are a net positive
- US advance retail sales March mm -0.3% vs +0.1% exp
- US PPI Final demand -0.1% vs. +0.2% est.
Most to the advancement in the USD today was done before NA traders entered. Nevertheless there was a little meat left on the dollar buying bone during the NY session. For example, the EURUSD moved to new session lows, the USDCHF printed new lows and so did the USDJPY and the GBPUSD. Those moved to new dollar highs came despite worse than expected data in the US today. Retail sales fell by -0.3% (est +0.1%) and PPI was also weaker at -0.1% vs +0.2% estimate. Later business inventories came at -0.1% vs estimates of +0.1% and sales were weaker than the inventory decline keeping the inventory to sales ratio at a high level historically. Later in the NY afternoon (just to complete the US fundamental picture), the Fed's Beige book seemed ok to me. Of course there are a myriad of qualifiers like "some districts", "most districts", "a few", etc, but they talked about how inventories were keeping up with sales, how business was investing in capital projects, how manufacturing was picking up and auto sales were strong. This all despite a 0.3% estimate for 1Q GDP (up from 0.1%) from the Atlanta Fed. Go figure.
What did help today was the technical pictue in some currency pairs
EURUSD: The EURUSD broken below its 10 day non trending range earlier in the day (the final break was below 1.1326-33. The corrective high after the weaker data took the price up to 1.1325 - just one pip short of the line in the sand. That was a sweet resistance hold and the price moved lower. It is trading at the lows for the day as the final seconds tick off the day's clock.
USDCAD: The US was not the only country with a fundamental story. The Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged on the day. In Poloz's post announcement pressers, he was more cautious about risks than potential strength (i.e."Have not yet seen concrete evidence higher investment", "Global economy retains capacity to disappoint further", "Recent data encouraging on balance, but also quite variable", and "Positive risks don't look very scary"). As a result, the USDCAD moved back higher, joining the other dollar buying.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is trading near low levels of the day near the close. The current price is trading around 1.4200. There is a cluster of support in the new trading day at the 1.4175 to 1.4185 level. The 50% retracement of the move up from the April 6 low (at 1.4175), the 200 hour MA at 1.41755, the 200 our MA at 1.41848 define the cluster. A move below (and and staying below in the new trading day) will have the bears/Brexit selllers telling their stories again.
AUDUSD: The AUDUSD spiked higher in the Asian Pacific session today. Better China trade sent the price toward the high price for 2016 at 0.77255. The highest the price could get was 0.77155 - 7 pips from a 2016 best. That was then. This is now. The "now" is eimployment stats which will be released in the new trading day. On the topside (on a strong number), the recent highs at 0.76797, 0.77155 and 0.77225 will be targeted. ON a weaker number (they are expecting +20K), there is a lot of technical support levels between 0.7590 and 0.76068. Put that area on your trading note pad.
USDCHF: The USDCHF trended higher in trading today but stalled at the underside of a broken trend line at 0.9667. This is about where the pair is ending the trading day. So we start the day off with a decision for this pair. Move above and stay above OR come back down.
That'll about do it for me....PHEW!. Wishing you all good fortune in your trading. Thank you for the support as always....
