Forex news for NY trading on November 12, 2019.
- Dow closes unchanged. Nasdaq closes at a record. S&P just short
- NZDUSD stays near the session lows with RBNZ decision ahead in the new day
- Kudlow: Would not put a timeline on China trade deal
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $56.80
- Hu Xijin China Global Times: A lot of complaints about China in speech...
- The before and after impact from the Pres. Trump speech
- Q&A session with Pres. Trump
- Fed's Harker: He was against the October rate cut
- Fed's Barkin: Policy in a mildly accommodative place
- Highlights from Pres. Trump at the Economic Club of New York
- YouGov poll: Conservatives 42%. Labour 28%
- FoxBusiness Lawrence: The EU auto tariffs may not be delayed afterall
- European shares get a lift in trading today
- Fed's Barkin: The US labor market is tight
- ECB De Guindos: We have definitely not exhausted all our options
- Survation Poll from Nov 6-8 has Conservatives 35% (+1%) Labour 29% (+3%)
- The USD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins
For the 2nd consecutive day, the economic calendar was void of any releases. Today however, a few Fed speakers did talk and Pres. Trump was making a rare appearance at the Economic Club of NY. Traders were hoping for some new insignt on the US/China deal .
What they got instead was a reiteration that the US was close to signing a Phase I deal with China which could happen "soon". He did not provide any information with regard to whether or not tariffs would be rolled back but did say that the deal would have to benefit the US and the US workers. Apart from that Pres. Trump continued his criticism of the Fed ("the stock market would be 25% higher" if the Fed had on the job), said that the EU had trade barriers worse than China, criticize the Democrats for impeachment witch hunt (the public hearings start tomorrow) and for not signing the USMCA. He did say that there could be a tax-cut down the road. Finally, he outlined his economic accomplishments.
From the start to the finish, the major markets were little changed (see post here).
The Fed's Harker, did say that he was against the October rate cut and would prefer to sit tight and see what happens (I guess he is not lobbying for Chair Powells spot should Pres. Trump find a way to get rid of him). Fed's Barkin said that policy with mildly accommodative and that he doesn't see rate cuts is having a big impact on investments. He sees negatives from trade uncertainty, regulation and geopolitics.
Tomorrow the Fed Chair drawn Powell will be testifying on Capitol Hill before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. Expect that he would give a similar wait-and-see approach toward rates after the 325 basis point cuts in 2019 (that might prompt another angry tweet from President Trump).
In the forex market today, the JPY was the strongest of the major currencies followed by the CHF. When that happens it tends to be risk off play. However, there was not much in the way of fear in the markets today. The weakest currency was the NZD which saw inflation expectations for the quarter come in weaker than expected in the Asian session. The currency fell on the news and remained near low levels for the rest of the day. The RBNZ is about a 76% chance of cutting rates when they announce their rate decision at 8 PM ET/0100 GMT in the new day. That may have also played into the currencies weakness.
The US dollar today was a little bit higher with most of the gains versus the NZD (+0.49%), EUR (+0.22%), and AUD (+0.15%). The greenback fell marginally against the JPY (-0.06%) and the CHF (-0.05%).
As mentioned, fear was somewhat tame today.
- US stocks were marginally higher with the Dow unchanged. the S&P index up 0.16% and the NASDAQ up 0.26%
- US yields ended the session down about 2 to 3 basis points across the curve
