Forex news for US trading on May 10, 2016
- US stocks end the day sharply higher
- Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD to react to RBNZ and Gov. Wheeler testimony
- Fed advisory council suggests 1 or 2 rate hikes this year
- USD/CAD slips to session low as commodities climb
- Slowly build US dollar longs, watch commodity FX - SocGen
- Germany's Schaeuble wants central banks out of unusual policies
- Forex technical analysis: The AUDUSD is having some second thoughts
- How well do you know physical currencies?
- USD: Position adjustment; today's close key - Morgan Stanley
- US EIA raises forecast to world oil demand in 2016 and 2017
- Atlanta Fed bumps Q2 GDPNow forecast to 2.2% on consumer spending
- European equities end the day higher, but give back bigger gains
- The age of lithium-ion is upon us
- The top hedge fund manager made so much last year he bought Ben Bernanke
- JOLTS job openings for March 5757 vs 5450 expected
- US March wholesale sales +0.7% vs +0.5% expected
- ECB asks Eurozone banks to detail Brexit contingency plans
- BOE won't hike until May 2017 - BAML
- Time to sell Canadian dollar say Morgan Stanley
The macro movers for the day? Commodities moved higher with the CRB up 1.83%, Crude oil futures were up 2.9%. Stocks were up. So the commodity currencies rebounded with the exception of the NZD (more about that in a bit). In economic news, the JOLTS Job opening climbed to the 2nd highest level on record. That was not too bad. The Wholesale inventories rose by 0.1% but wholesales sales rose 0.7%. The GDPNow for Q2 increase to 2.2% from 1.7% reported earlier. It is still early for the report but it signals a 2Q bounce back (although we now accept low 2% as pretty good).
The USDCAD fell - admittedly in up and down trading. However the pair is ending the day at the session lows and will enter the new day testing the 100 hour MA at the 1.2905 level. The price has been above the 100 hour MA since May 3rd.
The AUDUSD flirted (well it was on it's way) with breaking below both the 100 day MA and the 50% retracement level yesterday at the 0.7330 area. Today, those dreams of breaking and running lower were met with cold feet. The pair rebounded and toward the close moved away from those key support levels. The pair is closing near 0.7363. The AUD is also the strongest currency among the majors - rising against the lot (see the table below).
The NZD lagged behind the CAD and the AUD. The main reason is the RBNZ Financial Stability report will be released at 5 PM ET/2100 GMT. The risk is a more dovish report especially after the cut by the RBA last week. The NZDUSD has been moving lower in solidarity with the AUDUSD move (at least over the last 6-7 days, but in trading today, the pair bounced off support against the 100 day MA at the 0.6721 level (the low reached 0.67155).
The JPY was under pressure today and was the weakest of the major pairs. It fell vs. all the majors. Stocks rose by 1.26% in the US. That helped a flight out of the relatively safety of the JPY. Technically, the USDJPY moved above the 50% of the move down from the BOJ no cut day on April 28th at 108.713. The 61.8% of the move lower comes in at 109.46. For what it is worth Morgan Stanley said it is time to sell the USDJPY citing the 109.46 retracement level as a "running out of steam" technical level (click here).
What can you say about the EURUSD except maybe "Second verse, same as first". Yesterday, the range was about 45 pips. Today that was extended to 51 pips. The range for the week is 61 pips going into "Hump Day". It'll be a long hot grinding summer if the EURUSD starts to die on the vine before Memorial Day. Look for a range extension of that 61 pips in the new trading day.
The GBPUSD held the 100 day MA yesterday. The 100 hour M at 1.4453 was trying to put a lid on the pair for most of the London session. However, there was a break above the level, followed by a failure. Keep an eye on the MA in the new trading day. A move above will be more bullish.
RBNZ take center stage now. For my tech levels CLICK HERE.
Good fortune with your trading.
