Forex news for US trading on March 1, 2016:
- February 2016 US ISM manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs 48.5 exp
- February 2016 US Markit manufacturing PMI final 51.3 vs 51.0 exp
- Canada Q4 GDP +0.8% vs 0.0% expected
- US autosales at 17.54m rate vs 17.68m expected - Autodata
- Trump: I haven't even started on Hillary yet
- US restaurant index improves but remains in a rut
- Russia oil minister Novak: Sees oil output freeze stabilizing market
- Manufacturing is seeing a turn toward the positive says ISM's Holcomb
- IBD/TIPP March US economic optimism 46.8 vs 47.9 expected
- February 2016 Canadian RBC manufacturing PMI 49.4 vs 49.3 prior
- New Zealand dairy auction: GDT price index +1.4% vs -2.8% prior
- ECB's Lautenschlaeger says there's too much liquidity in Germany
- Russia's Putin says forex and gold reserves are not for financing current economic woes
- UK's Osborne says Brexit would be a " long, costly and messy divorce"
Markets:
- S&P 500 up 46 points to 1978
- US 10-year yields up 9 bps to 1.83%
- WTI crude up 54-cents to $34.32
- Gold down $6.50 to $1232
- CAD leads, JPY lags
Risk trades sizzled in New York. The ISM and construction data was strong and that was a driver but I suspect the beginning of the new month and fresh money going to work was the bigger factor.
USD/JPY was at 113.10 as US trading started, then shot to 113.80 on the data and eventually to 114.18 before it bulled back to 113.80. Last at 114.07. With the solid close, it completes a bullish outside day in a positive signal.
EUR/USD tried to make its way lower three times in US trading but bids at 1.0835 held the line on each occasion. Expect a fresh test if the mood holds up. The pair finished near 1.0866.
GBP/USD remains a touch short term trade with choppiness dominating. Soft UK data was brushed aside in a rise above 1.4000 in Europe but sellers were aggressive and sold down to 1.3975 followed by a fall to 1.3930 after the good US data. More selling into the London fix almost got cable to 1.3900. It showed some much needed life later in a rebound to 1.3980.
USD/CAD was in focus. The pair broke down on the positive GDP report. Initially it held at the October highs, which are now support. Not for long though as oil gains led to a run on stops and drop all the way to 1.3385, down 125 pips on the day.
AUD/USD wasn't nearly as buoyant and the RBA, China and local data led to a whippy data. The pair quickly fell to 0.7120 from 0.7175 but bounced back near the highs on risk sentiment.
