Forex news from the European morning session 13 May 2015
News:
- Bank of England quarterly inflation report: Cuts 2015 growth to 2.5% from 2.9%
- BOE's Carney says pound strength continues to lower import prices
- Carney says there is persistent fiscal drag on the economy
- Carney says recent bond market moves are not particularly surprising
- More from Carney: Pound strength relevant to future path of interest rates
- BOE's Shafik says there is now more of a consensus that next interest rate move will likely be up
- ECB's Coeure says exchange rate is important for growth and price stability
- ECB's Coeure says risks remain high
- ECB's Coeure says don't treat Greece differently
- ECB's Hansson sees slow, fragile but firming Eurozone recovery
- BOJ's Kuroda says slowing inflation is due to sudden drop in oil prices
- More from Kuroda: Long-term low interest rates having positive effect on economy
- IEA sees 2015 non-OPEC oil supply growth up by 200K bpd to 830k
- Option expiries 10am NY cut today 13 May
Data:
- April 2015 UK Labour market report claimant count -12.6k vs -20.0k exp
- Q1 2015 Eurozone GDP flash 0.4% vs 0.5% exp q/q
- March 2015 Eurozone IP -0.3% vs 0.0% exp m/m
- German GDP Q1 flash qq sa +0.3% vs +0.5% exp
- German CPI April final mm 0.0% vs -0.1% exp
- France Q1 GDP flash +0.7% as exp
- France CPI April mm +0.1% as exp
- Germany wholesale price index April mm -0.4% vs +1.0% prev
- Italy Q1 GDP flash qq WDA +0.3% vs +0.2% exp
- April 2015 Italian HICP final -0.1% vs 0.0% exp y/y
- US MBA mortgage market index 412.5 vs 427.3 prior
- China retail sales yy April +10.0% vs +10.4% exp
- Japan economy watchers survey current April 53.6 vs 52.3 exp
Phew! My typing fingers need a good ice bucket soaking this morning with a non-stop barrage of data and events to keep us all more than busy
The euro had an early wobble on weaker flash Q1 GDP which saw EURUSD dip to 1.1233 from 1.1255 only to bounce back up to 1.1266 but since then its all been downhill for the pair posting lows of 1.1210 before staging a rally to 1.1232 as I type
But it was the pound that stole the show today which saw cable rally from 1.5680 to 1.5748 on better jobs and wages data only to fall back in rush on a more dovish/cautious UK inflation/economy report from the BOE.
That retreat saw a return to 1.5680 then ultimately 1.5635 before running into support and climbed back to 1.5680 again. We know where out pivot is now at least. EURGBP fell to 0.7123 from 0.7170 on the data having stalled at 0.7185 earlier but then soared back to 0.7170 on the BOE report/comments. Pound pairs suffered a similar rollercoaster ride
USDJPY has been mostly hiding again but drifted lower on yen- pair selling from 119.94 to 119.72 while USDCAD has also fallen from 1.2020 to 1,1965 before running into buyers
USDCHF had an early dip into 0.9250 before staging a strong rally above 0.9290 as EURCHF caught another bid above 1.0400 but both finding caps for the moment
AUDUSD has made the most of the USD softness to burst back up through 0.8000 to test offers/res at 0.8050 before stalling while NZDUSD has also enjoyed the ride up to 0.7448 from 0.7380 in a fairly straight line
Busy times again and we can expect more to follow before the day is out
