Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 9 March 2017
- French election poll - Macron ahead in first round vote
- Trump pushing $1tln infrastructure plans along quickly says WSJ
- Comments from China's MofCom on yesterday's trade data - distorted by new year
- China Feb. inflation data - PPI "further lifting the outlook for global reflation"
- China inflation (Feb): CPI 0.8% y/y (expected 1.7%) & PPI 7.8% y/y (expected 7.7%)
- More on Aust. PM Turnbull - budget trajectory not good enough, flags cuts
- People’s Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 6.9125 (vs. yesterday at 6.9032)
- Moody's with a preview of Chinese inflation data (due at 0130GMT)
- Wednesday: "China to keep yuan broadly stable, allow more fluctuations"
- Gig economy working out just fine for UK ex-Chancellor Osborne (650K GBP paycheck)
- USD/JPY & EUR/JPY orders
- EUR/USD orderboard
- China inflation data for February due at 0130GMT - preview
- UK data - RICS House price balance for February: 24% (expected 23%)
- Japan data - Labor Cash Earnings for January: 0.5% y/y (expected 0.4%)
- Japan data - February Money Stock: Yen, more yen, there's yen EVERYWHERE!
- Reuters: Coal gets second wind as Australia battles power crisis
- Preview: "ECB to sit tight ahead of potential election upsets"
- The new faces at the top (almost) of the Bank of Japan
- Australian broker news: ANZ sells 'E-trade' to CMC Markets
- ECB preview: Draghi may tone down inflation rhetoric
- AUD and NZD orderboards
- Australian PM Turnbull says credible path to surplus to help maintain AAA rating
- Interactive Brokers will discontinue options market making activities globally
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 9 March 2017
- Quick-take ECB previews from 6 banks
- Economic data due from Asia today - China inflation
- US indices give up gains. Trade near lows
- ICYMI: ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: ADP soars, oil crumbles
Chinese data was the focus again today on another subdued day for currency movement. Perhaps it was the imminent European Central Bank announcement coming up (where nothing is expected!).
News and data flow was very light indeed, with some Japanese data (wages and securities flows - see bullets above), Chinese inflation data and little else.
There was a flow on effect from the strong US jobs data overnight which had boosted the dollar, the Nikkei benefiting somewhat from the weaker yen today:
- Nikkei +0.17%
- Shanghai -0.85%
- HK -0.98%
- ASX -0.36%
And so to the Chinese inflation data (February CPI and PPI). CPI came in hugely below expectations, at 0.8% y/y it was less than half the+1.7% y/y expected. Falling food prices were cited as a big factor (after inflated prices ahead of the new year holiday, so the story goes). Meanwhile PPI came in marginally above consensus expected (7.8% y/y vs. 7.7%), fuels and metals the fastest risers at this level for inflation.
Yesterday we got trade data from China for February, and with the volatility surrounding the lunar new year holidays averaging out the two months is not a bad idea.
If that's done for the CPI data for January and February:
- The CPI was up 1.7% y/y (compared to 2.2% y/y toward the end of 2016). I'm not in China so I don't know if this is a more reasonable reflection of consumer level inflation, but there you go.
The PPI, in at 7.8% .... One thing seems beyond doubt, there has been very little pass through to official inflation figures.
There is more on the inflation data in the posts:
- China inflation (Feb): CPI 0.8% y/y (expected 1.7%) & PPI 7.8% y/y (expected 7.7%)
- China Feb. inflation data - PPI "further lifting the outlook for global reflation"
Currencies?
Not much movement, tight ranges. USD/JPY is little changed on the session at all. EUR and CHF have both weakened tiny against the USD. AUD and NZD are both on the soft side also, continuing their overnight losses (but not by much).
Bring on the European Central Bank and President Draghi!
- ECB preview: Draghi may tone down inflation rhetoric
- Quick-take ECB previews from 6 banks
- Preview: "ECB to sit tight ahead of potential election upsets"
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